The San Diego Padres (69-54) will face the Colorado Rockies (45-78) this Saturday at Coors Field in Denver. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. The latest Padres-Rockies list the Padres as -210 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 10.5 (-115o / -105u).
Despite a hiccup as heavy favorites in Friday's series opener the Padres have still played to a 19-5 record since the All-Star break, and are suddenly putting some legitimate pressure on the Dodgers in the race for the NL West. Dylan Cease has been fantastic in that period with a 0.98 ERA across 27 2/3 innings, and will get a chance to continue his strong play Saturday.
Veteran lefty Kyle Freeland will make his 14th start of the season Saturday for Colorado, and has been pretty successful at Coors Field so far this season, where he holds an ERA of 3.06 on the year. Let's get to my Padres vs Rockies prediction for Saturday.
Padres vs. Rockies Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-210 | 10.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 -137 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+176 | 10.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 +114 |
Padres vs Rockies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) | Stat | LHP Kyle Freeland (COL) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-9 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 3.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.41/3.19 | ERA /xERA | 5.75/5.15 |
| 3.08/3.21 | FIP / xFIP | 4.48/4.25 |
| 1.01 | WHIP | 1.49 |
| 20.9% | K-BB% | 12.9% |
| 38.4% | GB% | 39.4% |
| 123 | Stuff+ | 82 |
| 101 | Location+ | 101 |
Nick Martin's Padres vs Rockies Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Dylan Cease Trending Upward
Since Fernando Tatis Jr's injury on June 21, the Padres have played to a record of 29-14. The depth of the lineup has been on full display during that period, as they own a sixth best wRC+ of 118 and an OPS of .771. The lineup could be even more dangerous moving forward, as Xander Bogaerts has found his form since returning from injury, and Tatis Jr could return to the lineup soon.
Since July 1, the Padres have hit to a wRC+ of 132 against left-handed pitching with an OPS of .830.
Donovan Solano holds an OPS of .895 against lefties this season, and 1.277 versus Freeland in 18 ABs in his career. He could be a bat to watch in this matchup if he is given a spot in the starting lineup.
Joe Musgrove made a steady return on Monday versus Pittsburgh, and could provide a serious boost to the rotation if he finds the same form we saw last season. Due to a messy delay situation in Pittsburgh on August 6, Cease has pitched just six innings thus far in August. Over his last five starts he holds an xFIP of 2.93, and struck-out 10.41 batters per nine.
It may be something that is sustained over a larger sample, but his ground-ball rate has climbed significantly to 56.9% over the last five starts, which could be beneficial with winds expected to blow out to left centerfield Coors Field today.
Colorado Rockies Betting Preview: Kyle Freeland Surprisingly Solid at Home
Freeland has been surprisingly effective at home this season with an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP of 1.08, but it may not be a trend to buy into from a handicapping perspective. His xFIP of 4.47 at Coors is worse than his mark on the road, and his strikeout rate of 17.6% is also worse than his mark on the road.
Over his last five starts Freeland has been hard-hit 42% of the time and has allowed an xBA of .293. Batters hold a 29% line-drive rate against him this season, which is the third-highest mark among qualified starters.
Since July 1, the Rockies rank 17th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. They have struck-out 25.7% of the time in that span, and hold a 26th ranked BB/K.
Padres vs Rockies Prediction, Betting Analysis: Target Dylan Cease Prop Lines
Since the All-Star break Freeland has put up comparably poor numbers with the rest of his campaign, and is in a tough spot here versus one of the hottest offenses in the league. The forecast calls for hitter friendly conditions in this matchup (94 degrees with wind blowing out to left centerfield), which makes me interested in the Padres team total over 6.5 at +100.
Still, my favorite way to target the Padres here is by backing Cease to record a win. It's a scary prop to back in any game at Coors Field, but that is well compensated given that Cease is -115 to record a win, while the Padres are -145 to cover the first five inning run-line.
Cease has already had a successful outing at Coors this season, and enters this matchup amid a dominant run of play. He should get plenty of early run support, and then turn things over to a Padres which should be a clear strength the rest of the way. At anything better than -120 there is value backing Cease to record a win.
The Padres also look to be holding value to win the N.L. West at +600 entering today's action. With Tyler Glasnow and River Ryan now added to the Dodgers IR, their starting rotation looks quite concerning, even if Glasnow ends up only missing a few starts. The Padres are just three games back, and have the depth to make it a close finish down the stretch.
Something has to be said for the red-hot Diamondbacks as well, but the case that the Padres currently have the best active roster is quite reasonable. San Diego holds a comparably easy remaining schedule to L.A., and should be able to pull out a division win more often than 14% of the time as this number implies.
Futures Bet: Padres to Win NL West (+600)
Moneyline
| Padres | Rockies | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 69-54 | 45-78 |
| Home | 33-28 | 28-32 |
| Away | 35-25 | 17-46 |
| Favorite | 41-31 | 1-0 |
| Underdog | 24-21 | 44-78 |
Run Line
| Padres | Rockies | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 62-59 | 62-61 |
| Home | 26-35 | 33-27 |
| Away | 36-24 | 29-34 |
| Favorite | 31-41 | 1-0 |
| Underdog | 29-16 | 61-61 |
Over/Under
| Padres | Rockies | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 64-55-2 | 63-59-1 |
| Home | 36-24-1 | 27-32-1 |
| Away | 28-31-1 | 36-27 |
| Favorite | 40-32-2 | 1-0 |
| Underdog | 22-23 | 62-59-1 |
