Find my MLB pick and Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres on August 6, 2025. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Padres evened up the series on Tuesday evening by defeating the Diamondbacks 10-5 in 11 innings. They will go for the series victory tonight with Nestor Cortes on the mound taking on Anthony DeSclafani.
My Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Padres vs Diamondbacks pick: F5 Over 5.5 (+100)
My Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction is Over 5.5 total runs in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 9.5 100o / -120u | -145 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 9.5 100o / -120u | +120 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Nestor Cortes (SD) | Stat | RHP Anthony DeSclafani (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| -0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.3 |
| 9.00 / 7.79 | ERA / xERA | 4.91 / 3.82 |
| 11.86 / 6.37 | FIP / xFIP | 5.92 / 4.58 |
| 1.75 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 2.6 | K-BB% | 13.4 |
| 27.3 | GB% | 45.8 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 82 | Location+ | 96 |
John Feltman’s Padres vs Diamondbacks Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Arraez, Diaz Have Crushed DeSclafani
Nestor Cortes gets the ball tonight in his Padres debut, and there is a lot of speculation about how he will perform the remainder of the season.
He got off to a rocky start earlier in the year when he was a member of the Milwaukee Brewers before suffering an injury that kept him sidelined until now.
Cortes' numbers in 2025 should be taken with a grain of salt due to the amount of innings he's pitched, but they are still worrisome. Last season, Cortes ranked below the 12th percentile in opposing hard-hit rate and had a horrific 31% ground-ball rate.
He has decent numbers against these Arizona hitters, holding them to a .211 batting average over 38 plate appearances. The Snakes' team batting average dips a bit against left-handers, although they are a much better offensive team at home.
There is not much reason to believe Cortes will deliver a strong performance tonight, and it is unknown how long he will be in the game. However, all our attention should be on the Padres' offense tonight against Anthony DeSclafani.
First and foremost, the Padres are batting .287 against him over 87 plate appearances. Most notably, Luis Arraez and Elias Diaz have crushed DeSclafani, with both batting above .400 against him.
DeSclafani has shown flashes of improvement recently, but there is much to like for the Padres' bats tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Great Matchup for Arizona's Bats
The good news for the Snakes tonight is that they draw a premium matchup against Nestor Cortes. Although it is unknown how long he will be in the game, the Padres used many of their higher-leverage arms last night, resulting in a gassed bullpen tonight.
The numbers against Cortes are not the best, but given what we saw in the tail end of 2024 and early on in 2025, Cortes's days as a big league starter may come to an abrupt end.
Cortes allows hard contact, which plays right into the top of this Arizona lineup. They are a much better offensive team at home, so there is much to like about their matchup tonight.
DeSclafani has been shelled by these Padres bats in the past, but his limited metrics in 2025 give me much hope for him in tonight's matchup. He has limited hard contact and generates a high percentage of ground balls.
For a guy who has not pitched since 2023, he is showing that he might have improved post-surgery. He is also compiling a well-above-average chase and whiff rate, which is massive against a Padres team that does not strike out too often.
The market is underrating DeSclafani's ability, and we are getting a discount on the Diamondbacks tonight.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Pick
There are many good reasons to back Arizona tonight, but my absolute favorite play is the F5 over. DeSclafani may have improved since 2023, but these Padres hitters have mashed him in the past.
I also really like the Snakes' matchup against Cortes. They should get their offense going early once again.
Cortes may exit the game early, but we will not see any of the Padres' higher-leverage arms early on.
Both offenses get a huge boost tonight, and I expect many runs early and often.
Pick: F5 Over 5.5 (+100, Fanatics)
