Royals vs Dodgers Odds & Pick | Saturday Prediction
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+195 | 8 -102o / -118u | +1.5 -105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-238 | 8 -102o / -118u | -1.5 -115 |
Despite a 4-6 stretch entering Saturday, the Royals still own a 4 1/2-game lead over the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card race. One of the key reasons for their surprisingly strong record has been Saturday's starter Seth Lugo, who owns a 9-2 record and 2.37 ERA across 91 1/3 IP.
The Dodgers moved to 43-28 with their 4-3 victory in the series opener Friday, and have largely been as advertised. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has had some rocky outings, but he has lived up to the hype with a 3.00 ERA across his first 72 innings of big league work.
Kansas City Royals
Lugo will look to get right after two ugly outings, in which he allowed 9 earned runs across 13 innings, and struck-out just nine batters combined. Those starts did come in nightmare spots, as he took on the Guardians at Progressive Field, which has now become a hitter's paradise, as well as at Kauffman Stadium versus the best offense in baseball being the Yankees.
Still, Lugo did appear to be a lesser pitcher than his ERA suggested before those outings. Over his last four starts he has allowed an xBA of .265, and owns a K-rate of only 15%. His recent struggles have pushed his xERA to 3.84 this season, and he holds an xFIP of 3.92.
Lugo owns a Stuff+ rating of 98, and a Location+ rating of 100 this season.
Royals games have featured a lot of exciting finishes this season, as their bullpen has offered up a lot of late collapses, while their offense has also authored some exciting comebacks. Over the last 30 days Royals relievers have pitched to an ERA of 4.91, and an xFIP of 4.61 (fifth highest in MLB).
The Royals offense has hit to a wRC+ of 114 against right-handed pitching over the last month, with an OPS of .768. Their upside versus RHP will be lessened if Salvador Perez can't play today, as he left Friday's game with knee discomfort, and has slugged .500 versus righties this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
To no surprise the Dodgers offense has been dominant in splits to right-handed pitching this season. Their 123 wRC+ is tied with the Yankees for first in MLB. Shohei Ohtani owns a 1.065 OPS versus righties this season, and since the start of last year, his 1.110 OPS versus RHP still ranks first in MLB.
Shohei and the other Dodgers superstars has been as dominant as expected in splits to righties. Teoscar Hernandez .797 OPS and Andy Pages .712 OPS versus RHP have helped provide depth to make it a relentless lineup.
Yamamoto owns a 3.18 xERA and 2.73 xFIP this season. He has pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 99, and a Location+ rating of 105. Over the last four outings Yamamoto has been hard-hit 40% of the time, but has struck-out 30% of batters faced.
Yamamoto features particularly pronounced splits first time through the order versus second and third time through the order. He has allowed a slug-rate of .532 first time through the order this season, but has allowed a slug-rate of just .238 second time through the order. He has allowed an OPS of just .547 facing batters third time through the order.
Royals vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Seth Lugo's form is beginning to tail off, as he has been allowing more hard contact over the last several starts, while seeing his K-rate plummet. Part of his last two starts being so awful was the strength of competition faced, but things don't get any easier here as he takes on the third best offense in the league versus right-handed pitching.
The Royals bullpen also continues to be a significant concern, and if this game gets a little out of reach early we could see the Dodgers run it up versus some softer relief options.
Kansas City does provide a tough test for Yamamoto though, as it ranks in the top third in OPS versus right-handed pitching, and has been on fire of late offensively.
Dodger Stadium calls for 8-9 MPH winds blowing out to center field in this matchup, which should help with run production.
There is value betting the over 8 at anything better than -110.
