Kansas City hands the ball to left-hander Cole Ragans while right-hander Gavin Stone takes the mound for Los Angeles on Friday at Dodger Stadium.
Let's dive into my Royals vs Dodgers same game parlay for Friday night, June 14 which features three legs that include a moneyline and player props for Ragans and Bobby Witt.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Royals vs Dodgers MLB Parlay: Friday SGP
- Cole Ragans Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-142)
- Bobby Witt To Record A Hit (-330)
- Royals ML (+136)
Parlay Odds: +288 (FanDuel)
Ragans is continuing to develop into one of the best pitchers in MLB. Through 14 starts this season, he boasts a commanding 3.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
He's been particularly dominating recently, allowing one or fewer runs in four of his past five starts. The southpaw is 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over that stretch.
Specifically, we're going to back Ragans in the strikeout market; you can currently find his line at 5.5 on FanDuel. He has surpassed this total in each of his past five starts.
This season, the former first round pick ranks in the 73rd percentile in chase rate, 90th percentile in whiff rate and 89th percentile in strikeout rate.
It's a small sample size, but this current Dodgers lineup has collectively had 10 plate appearances against Ragans, and he boasts a 30% strikeout rate and 33.3% whiff rate over that sample.
Meanwhile, Stone is due for regression for Los Angeles. His ERA this year is spectacular, but it is unsustainable with the amount of base runners he allows.
Stone's analytics agree as he possesses a 3.96 xERA and .267 xBA. If we are going to fade him based on this expected regression, then there is no better candidate to do it with than the Royals' Bobby Witt.
He is undoubtedly within the conversation for the best hitter in baseball alongside Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. This season, Witt ranks in the 93rd percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
He is second in MLB in hits and has recorded at least one in each of his past 14 games. Witt also sports a .426 BA, .632 SLG and 1.076 OPS over that stretch.
If we're backing Ragans and Witt while simultaneously fading Stone, then a highly correlated outcome would be the Royals winning this game.
Both teams rank in the top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS, so there's a minimal differential there.
Meanwhile, Kansas City possesses the pitching advantage between Ragans and Stone, especially when you consider that Stone has gotten away with a few questionable outings to start the season and is due for regression.
That just leaves two aspects left to consider: the bullpen and home field.
Both relief staffs rank in the bottom 11 of the league in FIP, so again, a minimal differential there.
That just leaves home field, which obviously belongs to Los Angeles. However, I think the value still lies with the Royals at +136, given the aforementioned variables.
