Reds vs. Padres Odds, Pick
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-108 | 7.5 -122/+100 | -1.5 +155 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-108 | 7.5 -122/+100 | +1.5 -188 |
The San Diego Padres are going through a rough stretch, which started with a collapse in Colorado on Thursday afternoon. They blew a 9-4 lead in the 8th inning and lost 10-9, which now has snowballed into a four-game losing streak.
After getting swept by the Phillies, the Padres look to right the ship at home when the Cincinnati Reds come to town. The Reds dropped two of three to the Rangers in Arlington but are still having a decent first month of the season.
The Reds turn to southpaw Nick Lodolo on the mound where he will take on Matt Waldron for the Padres. Let's break down both teams below and uncover the best betting angle.
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz is an early season MVP frontrunner in the NL as he continues to tear it up at the plate. De La Cruz has seven home runs, 18 RBIs and 18 steals with 25 runs scored.
The key for the Reds tonight is starting pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has shown a lot of promise to begin the year. He was not the sharpest in his last start against the Phillies, but Lodolo entered the matchup with terrific numbers.
On the season, Lodolo has a ridiculous 33.8 CSW%, 15.6% Swinging Strike Rate, 2.12 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. The tandem of him and Hunter Greene at the top of the rotation is going to give NL Central opponents fits for years to come.
If he brings his usual stuff, the Padres will have a hard time tonight. The Reds offense draws a favorable matchup against a Padres pitching staff that is 23rd in ERA, so as long as Lodolo can avoid a blowup, he'll put his team in prime position to win.
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San Diego Padres
The Padres are struggling, but the offense is not the reason. They enter the matchup among the top 10 in most offensive categories, and they do a good job of keeping the ball in play.
Waldron gets the start and has been mediocre to begin the year. He currently owns a 3.96 ERA, but the metrics suggest he has been slightly fortunate.
Waldron does not generate a lot of ground balls, does not miss a lot of bats and tends to be prone to the long ball. The Reds offense does strike out a ton, but they will make pitchers pay if they make too many mistakes over the heart of the plate. The Reds have a boom-or-bust offense, but Waldron's pitching arsenal does not make for a great matchup.
The Padres offense is too talented for them to keep losing, but I do not like the matchup against Lodolo. He is still flying under the radar, and soon enough many will realize he is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Most importantly, the Padres are hitting a putrid .197 against left-handed pitching on the year. That makes me even more confident they'll continue to struggle tonight.
Reds vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
I really like the Reds tonight with their southpaw ace on the bump. The Padres cannot hit lefties worth a lick, and Waldron is a favorable matchup for the Reds offense.
Even if Lodolo is not his usual sharp self, the Reds offense should find success against the flyball-prone Waldron. Getting near even money, I will ride the Big Red Machine tonight in San Diego.
