Reds vs Nationals Odds
| Cincinnati Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 10 -118 / -104 | -1.5 +134 |
| Washington Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 10 -118 / -104 | +1.5 -162 |
The Cincinnati Reds travel to the nation's capital to take on the Washington Nationals on Monday. The Reds sit atop the NL Central, tied with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Cincinnati was one of the most electrifying teams in the month of June — basically since they called up highly touted prospect Elly De La Cruz. Since June 5, the Reds are an astonishing 19-5 and are in position to potentially win the division.
Luke Weaver, Cincy's scheduled started on Monday, has been roughed up in his last three starts, so the Reds will likely need their offense to stay hot.
The Nationals currently own the third-worst record in baseball with a lowly 33 wins as we near the All-Star break. There isn't much hope for Washington — their starting rotation has struggled, their bullpen has been a mess, the offense has been below average and they're one of the worst defensive teams.
They send Jake Irvin to the mound in hopes he can give them a solid outing.
See how I'm betting the Reds vs. Nationals series opener below in my game preview.
Cincinnati Reds
Luke Weaver has been quite bad this season — his ERA is over six and his xERA is well above five.
He's tried to change up his pitch arsenal. Last season he was basically a fastball/changeup guy; now, he's throwing his cutter and curveball more often.
So far, it's hasn't worked — his changeup is the only pitch with an xwOBA below .300. When you dig into Weaver's Statcast numbers, it's pretty clear he's having a lot of difficulty keeping the ball off the barrel.
It's possible Weaver has a decent matchup against the Nationals considering they don't hit righties as well as they do lefties, but then again, he has given up 13 runs in his last three starts.
The Reds offense is what's propelled them over the last month. Since June 5, the Reds have scored 143 runs and have a .353 wOBA, both of those rank second, behind only the Braves.
Elly De La Cruz has been the catalyst behind this resurgence. The rookie has put up a .361 wOBA over his first 22 games in the big leagues. The unsung hero has been Will Benson, who has a .495 wOBA and 22 hits over his last 21 games.
The Reds should be able to keep this type of offensive output going against a below average starting pitcher.
Washington Nationals
Jake Irvin is a mediocre starting pitcher with control issues. Over a 10-start sample size, he has a 4.84 xERA. He's walking far too many guys — his BB/9 is a dangerously high 4.72 — which is a problem that plagued him throughout the Minors.
Irvin offers a fastball, curveball, sinker combination, with his curveball being the only above average pitch. Opposing hitters only have a .256 xwOBA against it, and it has a Stuff+ rating of 105. However, his fastball and sinker are well below average, allowing an xwOBA over .350 with a Stuff+ rating below 95.
The Reds have a +14.7 run value and .353 xwOBA against right-handed fastballs and sinkers this season, so Irvin better have his curveball on point.
The Nationals offense has been up and down, but it's really the only thing that is keeping them going this season.
Overall, the Nats have a .312 wOBA, which is 20th in MLB. They have been better against left-handed pitching so it's unfortunate that they're facing a righty.
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Reds vs Nationals Pick
This is truly a terrible starting pitching matchup that should result in a lot of runs, even if the Nationals offense has been well below average.
The Reds offense has a fantastic matchup against Jake Irvin, while Luke Weaver has been so bad, even the Nationals lineup should be able to hit him around.
Finally, both of these teams are subpar defensively. The Reds are 23rd in defensive runs saved (DRS), while the Nationals are 28th.
I have 6.1 runs projected for the first five innings, so I like the value on Over 5.5 runs at -112 (BetRivers).
Pick: First 5 Innings Over 5.5 |
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