Red Sox vs. Rays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+134 | 8.5 -112 / -108 | +1.5 -142 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-158 | 8.5 -112 / -108 | -1.5 +118 |
The Tampa Bay Rays are off to a historic start to the 2023 MLB season. They are 9-0 and have covered the run line in every single one of those victories.
Tonight, the Rays host the Boston Red Sox and are -158 favorites on the moneyline. The run line of -1.5 pays out at +118 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Jalen Beeks will start as an opener for the Rays against Boston starter Nick Pivetta.
Will the Rays continue their historic start against their AL East rivals and make it to 10-0, or might today be the day to fade Tampa and back the Red Sox as underdogs?
Let's take a look at data surrounding the Rays' streak and then get into picks for Monday night's matchup.
How Rare is Tampa's Streak?
According to research done by MLB's Sarah Langs, the American League record for most consecutive wins to start a season is 13 by the 1987 Milwaukee Brewers. That tied the MLB record, which was set by the 1982 Braves. That Brewers team started 17-1 in total and wound up 91-71 and finished third in the American League East, while the '82 Braves finished 89-73 and lost in the NLCS.
Through nine games, the Rays' run differential is +57, which is the best mark to start a season since 1884, when the St. Louis Maroons were at +78 and the New York Gothams were at +63.
In terms of the run line, the Rays are the fourth team in the last 15 years to start 9-0, according to Action Network director of research Evan Abrams. The previous four teams all wound up with losing value on the run line by the end of the season. The 2015 Tigers (finished 76-85, -$1,633), 2009 Mariners (finished 80-82, -$206), and 2008 Diamondbacks (finished 73-88, -$1,334).
Future Odds on Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays opened the season at or around 25/1 to win the World Series. That number has already moved dramatically. As of Monday morning, the Rays were 11/1 to win the World Series at FanDuel Sportsbook, the sixth-lowest odds in MLB.
The Rays also now have the third-lowest odds to claim the AL pennant at +480, only behind the Astros (+350) and Yankees (+400).
Although their pennant and World Series odds remain behind the Yankees, the Rays are now slight favorites to claim the AL East crown. At FanDuel, their odds are at +145, right in front of the Yankees (+155). New York has started the season 6-3.
For complete MLB future odds at a variety of sportsbooks, click here.
How is the Public Betting Red Sox vs. Rays?
The public is riding with the underdogs to put an end to Tampa Bay's run.
At the time of publication, 50 percent of all bets are on the Red Sox moneyline, including 73 percent of the money wagered, according to Action Network's PRO Report. That indicates both the public and sharp bettors have their eyes toward Boston.
In terms of the run line, however, bettors are pounding on Tampa to make it a perfect 10-0 at -1.5. In total, 87 percent of run line bettors have the Rays -1.5, and that same line is generating 93 percent of the dollars wagered.
In terms of the total, sharps are definitely riding with the under. While only 45 percent of the bets are on the under, it is generating 80 percent of the money.
Red Sox vs. Rays Pick For Monday, April 10
Sean Zerillo: The Rays are off to a historic 9-0 start, but they have also faced one of the easiest schedules you could ask for to begin a season — nine games against the Athletics, Nationals and Tigers.
The Rays’ average consensus price in those nine games was -250, or 71.4% implied. Even after configuring for vig, that is still roughly an average line of -228 (69.5%).
If you extrapolate that out, a team at that implied percentage (69.5%) over a nine-game stretch has about a 3.8% chance of winning all those games. Or, roughly, one in 26 times.
What’s far more impressive is that the Rays have easily covered the run line in each game, too. They haven’t just won against lesser competition, they have dominated.
Still, I projected Boston closer to +120 for Monday; I bet the Red Sox at +132 or better.
Additionally, play their F5 moneyline to +124.
Additionally, the total seems too high for a game at Tropicana Field.
Since 2005, games at the Trop with a total of 8.5 or higher have gone Under at a 54.5% clip (335-279-24). A consistent $100 bettor would be up $3,460 with a 5.4% ROI (Data via Action Labs).
I set the total around 8.1 for this matchup; bet the Under 8.5 to -105.
Zerillo's Bets:
- Red Sox Moneyline (+132 or better)
- Red Sox F5 Moneyline (+124 or better)
- Under 8.5 (-105 or better)
