Red Sox vs Rays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+115 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -180 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-135 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +150 |
It's time to take a look at Red Sox vs. Rays odds and make a prediction for Wednesday's AL East clash on May 22.
The Boston Red Sox will be looking to complete a three-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays tonight at Tropicana Field. Brayan Bello and Ryan Pepiot will take the mound for these two squads tonight in what looks to be a good pitching matchup.
These two AL East foes are battling for a potential wild card spot as they both look to remain above .500.
The Red Sox (25-24) have come on strong lately, winning their last three, and they have a half-game lead on the Rays (25-25), who have struggled to produce any offense this season.
Red Sox vs Rays odds have Tampa listed as a -130 favorite with an over/under of 8 (-108/-112).
Boston has won two low-scoring affairs to begin the series, and there's reason to believe this matchup could produce an under for the third day in a row. See why I believe this to be the case with my Red Sox vs Rays pick below.
Boston Red Sox
Bello will get the start for Boston tonight, and he has a 3.96 ERA and 4.32 xERA this season in 36 1/3 innings pitched.
Bello ranks 41st in Stuff+ and 27th in Pitching+ out of 140 pitchers with 30-plus innings logged. He has excelled in avoiding walks, with a 78th percentile walk rate, but the rest of his metrics have been largely average.
He has a whiff rate in the 51st percentile and a strikeout rate in the 39th percentile, so I wouldn’t expect him to rack up crazy strikeout numbers despite decent Stuff+ numbers.
He also ranks in the 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate, 38th percentile in barrel rate and 56th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Most of his success comes from not putting extra runners on base via walks while also inducing plenty of ground balls, where he ranks in the 79th percentile.
Boston’s offense ranks eighth in wOBA and fifth in ISO this season, but it's 17th in wRC+, 21st in walk rate and has struck out at the third-highest rate in the league. The Sox sit 7th in hard-hit rate, 11th in barrel rate and 20th in exit velocity.
I don’t have any theory as to why this would be, but it's interesting to note that the Red Sox are sixth in both wOBA and wRC+ on the road while ranking 19th and 26th in these two categories at home despite having one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in the league.
Tampa Bay Rays
Pepiot will be coming off the injured list to make his return today. Pepiot was placed on the IL on May 8 with a bruised lower left leg after taking a 107.5 mph line drive off his calf.
With a short absence, I wouldn’t expect Pepiot’s workload to be limited in any way.
Pepiot is having a strong start to his Rays career, owning a 3.68 ERA and 2.94 xERA through seven starts with 41 strikeouts across 36.2 IP.
Pepiot’s Stuff+ of 117 ranks 10th among 140 pitchers with at least 30 innings this season. He has struggled a bit with his location metrics but still sits 23rd in Pitching+ among that same group.
Pepiot’s xBA resides in the 89th percentile, and his xERA is in the 81st percentile. He also ranks in the 90th percentile in whiff rate and 84th percentile in strikeout rate.
The batted-ball metrics have been a concern, as he's in the 29th percentile in barrel rate, 35th percentile in hard-hit rate and 25th percentile in average exit velocity.
Pepiot has been good when he can limit contact, but when hitters put the ball in play, they've been making him pay.
Offensively, Tampa Bay ranks 27th in exit velocity, 28th in barrel rate and 28th in hard hit rate. This has resulted in it ranking 21st in wRC+ and 22nd in wOBA this season.
This team also walks at just an average clip and strikes out at the seventh-highest rate in baseball.
The Rays also hit ground-balls at the fourth-highest rate, which may be an issue against Bello. By most counts, this is a below-average offense, and I would have concerns about this unit going forward.
Red Sox vs Rays
Betting Pick & Prediction
Tropicana Field has been one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the last few seasons. Over the last three years, it has a Park Factor that ranks 28th in the league.
For some reason, the Red Sox have hit much better on the road this season, but they'll have a tough matchup here against Pepiot. Pepiot’s ability to miss bats will give him an advantage against the strikeout-heavy Red Sox.
I’m not extraordinarily high on Bello, but his Stuff+ numbers are good enough and he will have an easy matchup against this Rays offense. His high ground-ball profile combined with Tampa Bay’s batted ball metric lead me to believe that he will find success tonight as well.
I’ll take the under at 8 runs in this matchup and would bet it down to 7.5 at -105 or better.
Pick: Under 8 (-112 · Play to 7.5 at -105)
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