PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
These Friday MLB player prop parlays have treated us well so far this season. So, with another work week coming to a close, let’s pair together two of my favorite alternate strikeout lines on today’s MLB slate for a +147 payout on DraftKings.
- Ryan Pepiot 6+ strikeouts
- Jack Flaherty 6+ strikeouts
As one of the key pieces the Rays received in the Tyler Glasnow trade this offseason, Pepiot has mostly acquitted himself well in his first season in Tampa.
He’s pitched better than his 4.57 ERA would indicate, with a 3.40 xERA, and his strikeout stuff has ranked amongst the league’s best. Ranking in the 86th percentile in both whiff and strikeout rate, Pepiot’s 29.2% called plus swinging strike rate (CSW%) is the 22nd best, out of 134 pitchers with at least 50 innings this season.
What this has amassed is 72 punch outs in 63 innings, with Pepiot clearing this line in seven of the ten starts where he’s thrown at least 80 pitches.
Pepiot gets an advantageous spot today against a Pirates squad that has struck out at a 25% clip against righties, both over the course of the season and in the last 14 days. Additionally, at an 81 wRC+ and .640 OPS, the Pirates will be in their worse hitting split against a right-hander.
I have the Rays hurler clearing six strikeouts in five innings tonight.
The only thing holding back Flaherty from clearing this line is his health. The first-year Tiger has cleared this line in 11 of his 12 starts in which he’s thrown at least 70 pitches.
Flaherty has registered a whopping 100 strikeouts in 77.2 innings, leading all qualified pitchers with a 33.9% CSW%.
The White Sox are running at a 23.6% strikeout rate against righties this season. Against power-pitchers specifically, the South-Siders strikeout at a 28% clip, with a putrid .565 OPS.
The only thing holding me back from playing Flaherty’s straight strikeout prop of 6.5 is his recent injury scare. However, he bounced back within 10 days with a near flawless performance against the Astros (5 innings, 6 strikeouts, 0 runs on 73 pitches). He should be in line for a full workload today.
