PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Another Friday, another MLB player prop parlay. I’m putting together two expensive pitcher prop lines for a solid +127 payout (as of writing).
Brandon Pfaadt Over 17.5 Outs | Chris Sale 6+ Strikeouts
Diamondbacks vs. Padres (9:40 p.m. ET) | Braves vs. Nationals (6:45 p.m. ET)
Brandon Pfaadt has cleared this line in nine of his 12 starts this season. And he’s pitched into the sixth inning in each of last 11 outings.
The Diamondbacks sophomore’s advanced stats (2.78 xERA, 36% hard hit rate, 19% K%-BB%) indicate he’s pitched much better than his 4.32 ERA would suggest.
But the key with Pfaadt is his pitch efficiency. The right-hander has accrued 3.64 pitches per plate appearance – the 11th-lowest average amongst 125 qualified pitchers (per Baseball Reference). This, plus a minuscule walk rate of 4.7% has helped Pfaadt stay just south of 15 pitches per inning.
The Padres see the eighth-fewest pitches per plate appearance (3.82) and six of their nine expected hitters tonight are below average in that metric.
Pfaadt yielded 11 baserunners in his first outing against the Padres, but he was still able to finish six innings with a tidy 89 pitches. The Diamondbacks' bullpen has been leaned on heavily over the last two games, so I’m expecting Pfaadt to have a long leash tonight.
Meanwhile, for the other leg, Sale is coming off his worst outing of the season against the Athletics (four innings, eight earned runs, four strikeouts). Before that hiccup, Sale had cleared this line in all 10 of his starts.
I’ll count on a bounce back from the Braves’ southpaw today in a solid matchup. The Nationals have really struggled of late against lefties, with a 62 wRC+ and 23.2% strikeout percentage over the last 30 days (per FanGraphs). Five of the last six lefty starters have cleared this line against them.
There weren’t any discernible red flags from his struggles against the A’s; his velocity, spin and pitch-modeling metrics were all relatively in line with his season averages.
With that in mind, I’ll lean on Sale’s season-long track record and back the lefty tonight.
