The Arizona Diamondbacks (17-18) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (20-17) on Thursday, May 7. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT and MLB.TV.
The Pirates are favored by -108 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are -108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs (-110 / -110).
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Picks
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Pick: Over 9
My Pirates vs Diamondbacks best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Odds, Betting Line, Total
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -103 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -177 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -117 |
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Moneyline: Pirates ML -103, Diamondbacks ML -117
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Over/Under: 8.5
- Pirates vs Diamondbacks Run Line: Pirates -1.5 (+146), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-177)
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Zac Gallen (RHP, ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 2.85 / 3.76 | ERA / xERA | 4.45 / 5.22 |
| 2.90 / 3.97 | FIP / xFIP | 3.64 / 4.46 |
| 11.7% | K-BB% | 7.1% |
| 39.8% | GB% | 49.1% |
| .254 | BABIP | .339 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 105 | Location+ | 107 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks MLB Preview
We're expecting glorious hitting weather in Arizona on Thursday, with temperatures approaching 90 and light breezes out toward center field.
Hopefully, the team will choose to leave the roof open, as Chase Field's run environment is about 10% higher than league average in the open air.
Regardless, BallParkPal's weather model projects a +9% run-scoring factor for this game behind a +27% extra-base-hit factor, mostly thanks to the ballpark's rangy outfield.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks MLB Pick to Bet
Zac Gallen isn't the same guy he used to be.
His pitching model metrics have dipped consistently every year since 2020, and he's currently running an 89 Stuff+ this season. As a result, he's not missing as many bats (career-low 7.5% swinging-strike rate) and is allowing more hard contact than ever (47% hard-hit rate allowed), adding up to an alarming 5.22 xERA.
None of that bodes well in good hitting weather.
Meanwhile, I think Mitch Keller is due for some negative regression (2.85 ERA, 3.97 xFIP), mostly because he's been getting solid BABIP luck (.254 in 2026, .319 for career).
Between these two starting pitchers and the projected weather, I project this total at 9.53 runs.
Pick: Over 9
