Phillies vs. Rangers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 6.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -200 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -134 | 6.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +164 |
Major League Baseball makes its long-anticipated return on Thursday with a medley of new rules. MLB will look somewhat different in 2023 than it did in November 2022, when the Phillies came within two games of winning the World Series. The National League champions begin their campaign on the road against the Rangers and a very familiar starting pitcher. Jacob deGrom is healthy and ready to make his Texas' debut against Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola.
deGrom headlines a revamped Rangers rotation as Texas looks to make a playoff push in an improving AL West. He'll lead off the game with a battle against Trea Turner, who was the Phillies marquee offseason addition. Kyle Schwarber and Andrew McCutchen led off their Phillies careers with homers in their first at-bats in 2021 and 2019. Turner will try to do the same, but it's Texas that has the advantage because of deGrom's often unhittable stuff.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies might look quite a bit different by midseason once Ranger Suarez, Andrew Painter and most importantly, Bryce Harper, return from injury. Harper had Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL and the lack of depth in the organization is really being tested after the Rhys Hoskins injury. He'll miss the entire season due to an ACL tear in his left knee. That pushes Darick Hall to first base and likely shifts Jake Cave into the starting lineup.
The once vaunted Phillies lineup doesn't look nearly as deep now as it did on paper in the offseason.
Projected Phillies Lineup
SS Trea Turner
OF Kyle Schwarber
C J.T. Realmuto
1B Darick Hall
OF Nick Castellanos
3B Alec Bohm
2B Bryson Stott
CF Jake Marsh
DH Jake Cave
There are also some defensive questions about this group, especially on the corners where Hall, Bohm and Castellanos don't project as average defenders. The Phillies should be better up the middle, but this isn't a plus defensive team.
Despite the lineup concerns, Nola is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He ranked fourth in 2022 in K-BB% amongst qualified starters and no one had a better Location+ rating, per Eno Sarris' model from The Athletic. Nola is a true command artist — he never gives free passes and still generates plenty of swings and misses. His projected ERA sits around three, but that's considerably lower than deGrom.
Texas Rangers
Texas spent a lot of money in the offseason adding Nathan Eovaldi and deGrom to improve the rotation, but didn't really address its lineup depth. The Rangers will be hoping to get more production from youngster Josh Jung, who underperformed expectations considerably in a brief MLB cameo last season. Robbie Grossman and his 99 projected wRC+, which is slightly below league average, was a nice free-agent addition.
Rangers Projected Lineup
2B Marcus Semien
SS Corey Seager
1B Nathaniel Lowe
OF Adolis Garcia
OF Robbie Grossman
3B Josh Jung
DH Mitch Garver
C Jonah Heim
OF Bubba Thompson
Most of the production will come from the top four spots — especially after Lowe had a breakout campaign in 2022. Garcia has a ton of pop, Lowe and Seager are excellent hitters, and Semien is as durable as anyone in baseball. Thompson is expected to start on Opening Day and he'll contribute elite speed and an ability to steal bases.
The Rangers are below average when three-fifths of their rotation is on the mound, but deGrom is dominant enough to keep them in any game and makes them a rightful favorite in this one. deGrom pitched to a 2.24 xERA in 2022 and struck out a ridiculous 42.7% of hitters last season.
His ERA projection is up there with the top relievers in baseball, and he can do it for multiple times through the order.
Phillies vs. Rangers Betting Pick
There is some uncertainty with how much we'll see from deGrom on Thursday. He didn't throw more than 60 pitches in any Spring Training start, so he'll probably be limited to no more than 75-80. He's so efficient at times that it could get him through five or six innings if he keeps traffic off the bases.
Nola is an elite starter, but Texas is at home and has the better starter by more than a half run per nine innings. The Rangers have the better defense and have enough in their bullpen to hold off Philadelphia once deGrom exits. I'd play Texas at -140 or better.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline at -140 or Better |
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