Phillies vs Padres Odds, Pick, Prediction | MLB Betting Guide

The Philadelphia Phillies got back on track with a win over the Cincinnati Reds to close out their four-game, mid-week series and will now travel to San Diego for a weekend set with the Padres at Petco Park.

Will Aaron Nola continue his stellar run of form against a San Diego offense searching for answers, or will he be out-done by Joe Musgrove, who has performed well over his past two starts to level himself after a tough start to the season?

Let's get into my MLB betting guide and Phillies vs Padres prediction.

The Phillies were one of the hottest teams in baseball heading into Tuesday's clash with the Reds, taking seven in a row and lighting it up on offense behind some solid performances from their starters. They came crashing back to Earth with two straight losses in Cincinnati, where they were outscored 15-5, something that we probably should have expected given all their wins came over the Rockies and White Sox.

Well, after a shutout win over the Reds to secure a tie of that four-game set, things are once again looking up. For the season, Philly is now sporting pretty pedestrian marks across the board with its 9.2% walk rate and .145 isolated power sticking out as the highlights. It has failed to produce many hard-hit balls and even fewer barrels, so it remains to be seen how much power this offense can muster up, even with a decent 38.4% fly ball rate. That'll only be tougher playing in Petco Park, which graded out as the second-worst hitter's park over the last three seasons.

On the bright side, that should create a very positive outlook for Aaron Nola who's been great ever since his disastrous first start of the season against the Braves. He's allowed just five runs in four starts since, spanning 27 innings, and while he's struck out just 23 over this span, he's done an excellent job of not allowing hits.

Home runs and walks have been the two sticking points for Nola this season, and while he gave up 32 long balls a season ago, the influx of walks is of particular note given that's not an issue he's really ever had in his long career. Most of these came in his second start against the Nationals, however, so perhaps we'll just need to give his walk rate a little time to stabilize.

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I continue to struggle to rate the Padres' offense. Yes, they rank sixth in wRC+ this season and seem, for all the world, to be a complete team at the plate. They're coupling a solid 9.7% walk rate with one of the best strikeout rates in baseball and have produced above-average power numbers.

With that, though, they're 16th in barrel rate, 15th in hard-hit rate and have hit the third-fewest fly balls on average in the majors. They also just went to Coors Field and scored seven runs in three games prior to a sudden outburst in a 10-9 loss on Thursday, and while they didn't have Manny Machado, they really should have done a lot better in that series if their offensive numbers are to be believed.

On the hill, it's becoming hard to believe in Musgrove. The 31-year-old, perhaps showing signs of decline, has been unrecognizable in 2024 with a disastrous 5.75 ERA and poor peripherals. His strikeout rate has cratered by nearly eight points, something that's particularly troublesome since he'd been on a slight decline in this area for the last three years, and, worst of all, he's walked 8% of batters which, while just around the league average, is unlike Musgrove.

The righty simply isn't inducing ground balls anymore, which, along with a much higher hard-hit rate, has been a recipe for disaster. He should theoretically get a boost from pitching at home, but even then, he's still worn a 4.76 ERA in San Diego across four starts compared to an 8.31 ERA in two road outings.

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The struggles that have befallen Musgrove are a lot harder to get past when you consider the numbers against him are a lot more sustainable for opposing offenses. He's allowing a bevy of hard-hit balls, and while his ground ball rate is way down to 39.2%, that contact has been rather equally distributed between fly balls and line drives. So, it's not even as if a spacious park can really save him in this case.

Philly hasn't made a ton of hard contact, but it's also striking out at just a 22.3% clip this season to come in better than the league average. I expect a lot of balls back in play, particularly with the huge fall in strikeout rate for Musgrove, and if the numbers from this season are to be believed, that will spell disaster for San Diego.

On top of that, Nola has looked really good across his last three starts. He also shouldn't have to worry all that much about the gopher ball biting him in the rear while pitching in such a friendly park against a Padres offense that seems to me to be a fraudulent one at this point. Machado is expected to return to the lineup after taking a few games off to tend to a personal matter, but I don't think that's enough for me to believe in a struggling Padres team that should give Nola the ground balls he's looking for here to come away with another quality outing.

Pick: Phillies ML (-110)