Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -115 | 9 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +140 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 9 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -165 |
For as disappointing as the Phillies' 25-29 start has been, they still sit just 2.5 games back of the Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot.
Now with Aaron Nola pitted against Carlos Carrasco on Wednesday, they enter as short favorites. Let's dive in and find where the betting value lies for this divisional matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies
Nola's 4.59 ERA is a considerable step backward from his elite 3.25 mark in 2022, and it's one of many factors in the Phillies' disappointing start to the campaign.
His fastball velocity is down slightly, which seems to be feeding a couple of concerning trends.
Still, it seems Nola is due for some improved results even if we don't factor in the idea that he could find better form altogether based upon his priors.
Nola has pitched to a 3.96 xERA and a 4.12 xFIP. His strikeout rate is down considerably throughout the whole season at 21.7%, yet over his last two outings, he has actually poured in 17 strikeouts against the Braves and Cubs.
Giving up too many home runs has been a key concern and was his undoing last time out in Atlanta. Nola has allowed one homer or more in seven straight starts for a total of nine.
Bryce Harper rested Tuesday and should be back in the mix for this matchup. With Harper in tow, the Phillies do still offer a formidable lineup against right-handed pitching and have been solid in those splits thus far in 2023.
The Phillies have hit to a 101 wRC+ and .324 wOBA in 1,392 plate appearances against right-handed pitching in 2023. While those marks are steady, it's reasonable to believe that those rates are at the low end of where the Phillies' lineup should be if healthy.
New York Mets
Carrasco has been consistently getting crushed throughout the first 25.1 innings of the season, as he holds an xERA of 5.72 and an xFIP of 5.90.
His final stat line last time out at Wrigley — one earned run in 6.2 innings — suggests better results could be on the horizon. However, he actually allowed eight hard-hit balls, including six with exit velocities of 101 mph or greater.
Carrasco has been hit hard 37.3% of the time this season and has struck out just 13% of batters. His fastball velocity and spin rates have also taken a steep decline compared to his 2022 marks.
At the plate, the Mets offense will provide a stiff test for Nola. They own the sixth-best wRC+ mark in the league (106), with a wOBAof .321. They've also hit to a +4.2 pitch value versus the curveball this season.
Phillies vs Mets Betting Pick
Nola offers a significant pitching edge over Carrasco. His underlying profile is still encouraging and suggests he's due for better results, which isn't surprising considering his prior history and the fact he's still in the prime of a dominant career.
The Phillies have been a middle-of-the-pack offense against right-handed pitching so far, but if anything, logic dictates they could trend closer to the Mets on that front moving forward.
Considering the disparity in pitching quality, I believe the Phillies deserve to be a larger favorite than -120 in this contest.
Isolating Nola vs. Carrasco by backing Philly to win the first five innings at -130 is an option, but I would actually rather take -120 to win the full game in this instance.
Pick: Phillies ML -116 |
