Phillies vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -120 | 10 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +135 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +100 | 10 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -155 |
The Phillies have been winning a lot of games lately, but with the run comes a bit of skepticism.
Most of the success has come against inferior competition and poor pitching, and Monday night will be a real litmus test for them. Arizona has been one of the hottest teams in baseball at the plate and will be starting one of its better young arms in this one.
Can Philly overcome a tough matchup, or will the home team grab the opening game of this series? Let's dig into the numbers in our Phillies vs Diamondbacks preview and prediction.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are getting set to start Matt Strahm once again here, but if you haven't been following the Phillies over the last month or so (and who could blame you?) then you might not know he's no longer a traditional starting pitcher. The lefty isn't stretched out like he was earlier in the year and has been maxing out around 40 pitches.
That makes this one a little tricky for the visitors. Philly had four relievers work on Sunday, and all four were their high-leverage arms. Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto should be able to pitch here after throwing 17 pitches or fewer, but Jose Alvarado threw 31 and Seranthony Dominguez tossed 19.
That leaves Jeff Hoffman and Dylan Covey to do the heavy lifting here with few great options behind them.
That doesn't make a bullpen game sound all that appealing. While Rob Thomson said Sunday that all his arms should be available, it remains to be seen how effective they'll be.
The Phillies are also 19th in wRC+ over the last week and 25th against left-handed pitching this season, which should present the team with an uphill battle on Monday.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Snakes are red hot at the dish right now. Only two teams own a better wRC+ over the last week, and no team has a lower strikeout rate.
The team's been putting together some excellent at-bats and has a .193 isolated power to go along with them. While it's just 14th in wRC+ against southpaws, the recent success this team has had sure makes it a dangerous one on Monday.
That's not even considering the man on the hill for Arizona, which will be young Tommy Henry. The lefty did struggle last time out against the Nationals, allowing five earned runs and two homers, but to this point in the season, he's been pretty good.
His groundball rate has been steadily improving as the season has progressed, and it was better than the league average until his start against Washington. With a strong 32.6% hard-hit rate, Henry should have plenty of success if he continues to induce grounders.
Henry isn't much of a strikeout arm and has struggled with walks at times this season, but he's seen some improvements in that area over the last five starts. Like any young pitcher, he's going to be a little volatile, but there's plenty to like about his overall body of work to this point.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Betting Pick
The market isn't too hot on Henry, and I don't understand why considering how poorly the Phillies have hit over the last couple of weeks. On top of that, they've really struggled to hit lefties.
I'm not one to trust Hoffman and his 5.80 xERA, and Covey has pitched to a 7.11 ERA to this point. There shouldn't be many good options behind the Phillies' long relievers, too, with some tired middle relief arms entering Monday.
I think this is a great chance to back a red-hot offense as underdogs.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-104) |
