Phillies vs Cubs Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -134 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +125 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 8.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -155 |
The Phillies will look to extend their six-game road winning streak Tuesday as they opens up a three-game set with the Cubs. Philadelphia is -125 to win the contest with Ranger Suarez taking on Jameson Taillon.
Suarez has been dominant in June and owns a 3.50 ERA in 43.2 innings this season. Meanwhile, Taillon has struggled to a 6.71 ERA in 53.2 innings.
So, what's the best bet for Tuesday's National League showdown? Let's dive into the odds and make a pick.
Philadelphia Phillies
After a poor start to a season with high aspirations, the Phillies continue to stabilize and now find themselves three games above .500 at 40-37. They've put up a 15-7 mark in the month of June with strong offensive play, including a wRC+ of 103 and a wOBA of .326.
Philadelphia owns a wRC+ of 101 against right-handed pitching this season in 2,034 plate appearances.
Suarez has been dominant over his last four starts, with a 1.04 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 26 innings.
Opponents own a groundball rate of 55% against Suarez this season, which is the eighth-highest mark in MLB among pitchers who have thrown 95 innings or more. In 239 opportunities since 2021, he has induced a double play 14.6% of the time.
That strength has been key to hiding an arsenal of pitches that doesn't rate overly well. His Stuff+ comes in at just 85 this season, but his location has been strong, evidenced by a Location+ of 104.
Suarez has pitched to an xFIP of 3.47, with an xERA of 4.33 this season. He's clearly not going to put up the kind of results we've seen over the last month moving forward, but he should continue to perform as a strong starting option for the Phillies.
Chicago Cubs
A few high-scoring games against the Pirates have seemingly kept the fact that Chicago's recent offensive play has been modest under wraps. In the month of June, Chicago owns a wRC+ of 91 and a wOBA of .306.
The Cubs have been quite strong against left-handed pitching this season, though. They boast a wRC+ mark of 111 and a wOBA of .337 in 805 at-bats.
A 4.84 ERA in the month of June is actually a stabilization for Taillon, and it's come with a 1.34 WHIP and slightly improved expected rates.
He has pitched to an xERA of 5.58 this season with an xFIP of 5.19. His Stuff+ and Location+ are both better than league average, which is a positive note that means he could potentially trend closer toward his career average.
Lefties have thrived against Taillon, slugging a ridiculous .632 this season. Over his last three outings, Taillon has struck out just 7% of left-handed batters while allowing an OPS of 1.094.
Phillies vs Cubs Betting Pick
Despite some huge days at the plate for the Cubs, the Phillies own better offensive splits over the last month, and I believe that's the product of a more talented roster.
Suarez is a good deal worse than his current form suggests, but he still offers a clear edge over Taillon.
The Phillies deserve to be a bigger favorite than -125. Taking -135 for the Phillies to win the first five innings is also an option, but I'm not viewing the bullpen as a big enough liability to give back 10 cents, especially if Suarez can go six innings again.
Bryce Harper's props are also looking quite interesting, and I believe he could be a chalky Dinger Tuesday option at FanDuel with how lefties have demolished Taillon.
Pick: Phillies ML -125 |
