Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds
| Phillies Odds | -120 |
| Cardinals Odds | +100 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 8:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Philadelphia stunned the Cardinals on Friday with a 9th-inning rally and became the first team in MLB postseason history to hang a six spot after trailing by two entering the ninth.
Philadelphia was also the first team to come back from two down entering the ninth against the Cardinals in postseason history as St. Louis was 93-0 in that spot prior to Friday.
Aaron Nola will take the mound for Philadelphia on Saturday, looking to lead his side to the NLDS after helping the Phillies secure their first playoff berth in 11 years earlier this week.
Miles Mikolas will start for St. Louis and will be counted on to put a shaky back-half of the season behind him in this do-or-die spot.
Can Philadelphia follow up Friday's shocking win and close out the series behind Nola?
Philadelphia Phillies: Nola Presented with Big Opportunity
Philadelphia may have been lucky to breakthrough the way it did in the ninth inning on Friday considering there was essentially no hard contact, and one particularly awful ball call in a 1-2 count before three more runs scored. However, the fact is Philadelphia was more effective offensively than the Cardinals down the stretch.
Since September 1st, Philadelphia has hit to a wRC+ of 104 and while Friday's win was arguably lucky, I do believe this Phillies' lineup is underrated entering the postseason. If we chop off the first third of the season before Rob Thomson took over, the Phillies are right there with other top dogs, and I think there are some shades of the 2019 Nationals with the group, even if that's a reach at this point.
If the Phillies are going to win it all like that Nationals team, Aaron Nola will need to be a massive part of the story. He'll need to play the part of a bonafide ace.
I think that could be a realistic possibility as Nola has pitched to an xERA of 2.74 with stellar walk and K-rates this season. He also has an excellent xFIP of 2.77.
Nola's K-BB ratio of 8.1 is the best amongst qualified starters this season and is one of the most effective indicators of success moving forward.
Nola has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike 72% of the time this season — the highest mark amongst qualified starters — and could be a relevant note versus a Cardinals team that has struggled with the curveball.
St. Louis Cardinals: Who Will Step Up?
The Cardinals have been the 22nd worst team in the league versus the curveball with a -5.4 pitch value, and that could be a considerable factor entering this matchup with Nola, who loves to attack with his curveball.
The Cardinals have hit to a wRC+ of 98 as a team since September 1 and if the group doesn't find some better results Saturday, you could certainly make the case that the lineup peaked at the wrong time this year.
The same goes for Miles Mikolas, who has pitched to a 4.39 ERA through 82 innings since the All-Star break.
Through 82 career plate appearances against members of the Phillies' lineup, Mikolas has pitched to a sky-high xSLG rate of .554, which could be another bad omen entering this matchup.
Phillies-Cardinals Pick
Aaron Nola has gotten a slight reputation for not being a big-game pitcher, but I am willing to back the fact that he follows up Tuesday's massive outing on the night the Phillies clinched a postseason berth, with another clutch start here.
Nola offers a notable pitching edge over Mikolas and I believe we have some value with the favorite here at -105 to win the first seven innings.
The Phillies' bullpen has solidified significantly, but I still feel more comfortable backing the 7 inning runline (-0.5), and taking that potential weakness out of the game.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies 7 Innings Runline -0.5 -105 (Play to -110)
