Phillies vs. Astros Odds
| Phillies Odds | +170 |
| Astros Odds | -200 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-125/+105) |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Philadelphia Phillies will take the field for the first time since ending an 11 year playoff drought Monday, and could arguably be doing so with less than full motivation to record a win.
Whether the Phillies enter motivated and in reasonable shape after a night of celebrating or not, they could be in for a rough day at the plate, as they face off against Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros.
Ranger Suarez will start the game for Philly, and he's been a high quality starter himself this season. There's a lot of irregular factors at play in this contest, let's try to walk through a couple potential storylines.
Will Philly Rest Key Players?
The Phillies have some motivation to record a win in this spot as they could claim move up a spot in some scenarios, but the debate becomes whether the team would even like to do so, as it would mean a matchup with the New YorkMets instead of the St. Louis Cardinals.
From a betting standpoint, Philadelphia would be a heavier underdog against the Mets, though St. Louis is no cakewalk by any means. The Mets have stumbled down the stretch, but still hold six more wins than the Cards playing out of a tougher conference, and will be pitching Jacob deGrom in Game 1 and Max Scherzer in Game 2.
We likely will not see Philadelphia use any of its stronger arms out of a thin bullpen in this spot, or field its top lineup. Bettors piecing that together has led to a massive price swing overnight, and word on the official lineup will surely be worth watching.
Ranger Suarez has pitched to very strong results since the All-Star break, with a 2.50 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and will likely draw the start for a potential Game 3 in the wild card round if it goes that far. His 3.62 xERA suggests regression could be coming, and pitching to a high amount of contact could be an issue against this tough Astros lineup.
Offensively the Phillies have been in a strong form, but again, we need to consider that some of the key pieces may end up resting in this spot.
Astros Looking Toward the Postseason
Justin Verlander has returned from the IL in spectacular form — throughout 21 innings he has posted an ERA of just 1.50, including a a dominant performance last time out against Arizona.
His tear since returning from the IL, coupled with some struggles from Dylan Cease, may have locked up a third Cy Young award. In this contest the main goal will be simply to stay sharp for the postseason, and we likely will not see Verlander stretched too far.
Houston has no reason to play its top lineup in this contest either, and I think Yordan Alvarez could be a likely candidate to rest today. With Houston set for a much longer lay-off having earned a first round bye, it may be more inclined to pitch some stronger relievers in this spot, compared to a Phillies team who take the field Friday for Game 1.
Phillies-Astros Pick
This contest holds a ton of out of the ordinary factors at play, which is surely worth considering.
It's important to note that batter props will run so long as a player is in the starting lineup, which makes me feel this spot is quite bad for those. As we saw from Houston last night, the stars could come out early and hence your playing at normal prices when batters likely will not take all their at-bats.
Philadelphia arguably should not even want to win this game, not that they will likely be well situated to do so after last night, and in a matchup against Verlander.
Verlander should give the Astros five solid innings to start this contest against what may be a less than complete Phillies lineup, and therefore it's easy to like Houston's chances of winning the First 5.
After the first two third's of this contest we should see Philly begin to pitch some softer relievers, which should again be more of an advantage to Houston, considering what the bottom arms in the Phillies pen look like.
Therefore it seems likely Houston should either build on a lead or at worst hold it in this spot, and I think we can attack that with a single-game parlay.
Houston to win the First 5 and to cover -1.5 in the game is priced at +160, and I think that's a solid way to get a little action in on this contest. If that is not an option at your disposal, Houston to cover -1.5 is another sound option.
Pick: Houston Astros To Win First 5 + Game -1.5 Parlay (+160, Play to +150)
