Zack Wheeler and Framber Valdez match up in Game 2 of the World Series between the visiting Philadelphia Phillies and hosting Houston Astros.
Both pitchers have been exceptional in the playoffs, posting sub-2.00 ERAs in at least two appearances. Valdez focuses on keeping the ball on the ground with a A+ curveball, while Wheeler dominates with the fastball and strikes out hitters on the regular.
Valdez does allow a ton of hard contact, while Wheeler excells in that department. Further, the Philadelphia bullpen is not too sharp and has made a few different games during this postseason run too close for comfort.
Knowing all of that, how should we use this information to handicap Game 2? Let's break it down below.
Phillies vs. Astros Game 2 Odds
| Phillies Odds | +118 |
| Astros Odds | -138 |
| Over/Under | 7 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Wheeler Should Dominate Houston Hitters
Wheeler ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velocity and the 83rd percentile of chase rate. This will come in handy because the Astros ranked second in hitter strikeout rate during the regular season, only behind the Cleveland Guardians.
Another edge Wheeler holds over Valdez is his ability to throw strikes. Valdez is slightly below average in walk rate, while Wheeler only walks 5.6% of hitters.
From August 1 to the end of the regular season, the Astros only held a 98 wRC+. Only three batters had a .330+ xwOBA as well, so this has been a tough stretch for the Astros against righties.
In addition, only four Astros have a .650+ OPS against righties in the playoffs. Granted, they all only have 15-20 at bats, but this shows that the lineup is not up to par at the moment despite their undefeated postseason run. In particular, José Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, and Kyle Tucker are all underneath that threshold entering the World Series.
The Philly bullpen does have its issues. José Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, David Robertson and Noah Syndergaard have been the best relievers for them, but it drops off afterwards.
Luckily, Wheeler can pitch deep into a game, but that middle relief is more concerning at an away ballpark.
Can Phillies Get To Valdez?
Valdez has been great this season by inducing grounders at a 66% clip. His average exit velocity does sit in the 16th percentile and his hard hit rate is in the 18th percentile, so even if he is keeping the ball on the ground, there is a reason his xERA comes in at 3.31 and ERA at 2.82 in the regular season. He still got a little lucky.
One concern is the Phillies do not have a high flyball rate off of lefties, so expect walks, singles and doubles to get the job done against Valdez.
The Phillies have four batters with at least a .700 OPS and 10+ at bats against lefties in the playoffs. This is a small sample size, but Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Jean Segura and Alec Bohm are the names to watch with Valdez on the bump. Adding Nick Maton to the roster is a little more of a boost to depth, as well.
The Astros do have the edge out of the bullpen. From August 1 to the end of the regular season, they were the only team who held a sub-3.00 xFIP. For a bullpen of all righties, they also hold left-handers in check, which does not bode well for the lefty power hitters, like Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
Phillies-Astros Pick
The Phillies can hit lefties better than the Astros can hit righties. Wheeler is better than Valdez, even if Valdez can keep the ball on the ground. Expect the Phils to grind out a first five moneyline victory.
They may not win the entire game, but backing Wheeler is the right call. Play this line to -105.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies F5 +112 (bet to -105).
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