The Philadelphia Phillies continue to stumble as they’ve lost their last six games. The Phils have also lost eight of their last 10, and their large NL East divisional lead has quickly evaporated.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners had a busy trade deadline that seems to have lit a spark under the ball club. They are one game ahead in the AL West standings and can sweep one of the best teams in baseball on Sunday afternoon at T-Mobile Park.
We've got a terrific pitching matchup, as it'll be Zack Wheeler vs. Logan Gilbert — you can find a head-to-head comparison of their numbers in the chart below.
Phillies vs Mariners odds for Sunday have the Phillies as -135 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7 (-115o / -105u). You can find my Phillies vs Mariners prediction for this interleague finale in my MLB betting preview below.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7 -115o / -105u | -135 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 7 -115o / -105u | +115 |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Stat | RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 2.94/3.08 | ERA /xERA | 3.11/3.22 |
| 3.52/3.54 | FIP / xFIP | 3.33/3.39 |
| 1.02 | WHIP | 0.90 |
| 19.2% | K-BB% | 20.3% |
| 41.9% | GB% | 44.5% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 104 | Location+ | 101 |
John Feltman's Phillies vs Mariners Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Can Zack Wheeler Carry Phils?
The Phillies need to turn things around quickly, otherwise this is going to go to waste. They’ve dealt with a lot of injuries over the last couple of months, but they're starting to feel the heat in the standings.
The key for Sunday afternoon’s game, Lies on the shoulder of starting pitcher Wheeler. Wheeler was roughed up on Monday night against the Yankees, coughing up seven earned runs.
Since the Phils' are facing Gilbert, Wheeler needs to be even sharper than his usual self.
It is tough to trust the Phillies lineup right now. They've been inconsistent as of late, so they need him back to right the ship offensively.
The Phillies are 11-for-82 lifetime against Gilbert, with a poor .212 batting average. I have a feeling they'll have a tough time scoring runs on Sunday.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Logan Gilbert Bounce-Back Spot
The Mariner's offense has been amongst the worst in baseball, but yet they have claimed a one-game lead in the AL-West. The offense needed some upgrades, and they did a great job addressing those issues at the deadline.
They have an opportunity to sweep on Sunday, but have a tall task against Wheeler. Regardless of his most recent start, Wheeler is a perennial Cy Young candidate.
Gilbert was torched on Monday against the Red Sox, allowing 7 runs and 7 hits without escaping the 3rd inning. It was an uncharacteristically bad start, so I expect him to bounce back here.
The Mariners have struggled against Wheeler in the past, batting .197 over 72 plate appearances. Just like the Phils', I expect both offenses to be frustrated at the plate through the early portion of the game.
Phillies vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
I expect Wheeler and Gilbert to bounce back from rough outings on Monday. The market seems to be overreacting to their starts on Monday, so the F5 under is one of my favorite plays on the board on Sunday.
Both offenses have struggled against the opposition on the mound, so it's a terrific buy-low opportunity for both starting pitchers. I'll happily fade the public and back the excellent pitching metrics.
Pick: Under 4 F5 -120 via FanDuel
Moneyline
BET: Seattle Mariners +105
The Mariners are playing great baseball right now, and it appears the public perception is that the Phillies will snap their six-game losing streak. A lot of sharp money has flooded in on Seattle, and its offense has been much better since the deadline. If you're looking to take a side here, I'd lean Seattle.
Run Line (Spread)
PASS
I don't see value in either of these numbers, especially with a total set at 7. Seattle +1.5 at -161 is far too juiced, and I think you're asking too much from the Phillies offense to cover -1.5 here. No play from me here.
Over/Under
BET: Under 7 -105
Just as I mentioned in the official betting pick, I think both starting pitchers are going to duel this afternoon. I am more comfortable with the F5 Under, but I think Under 7 at reduced juice is a wise play at well. Besides, only 2% of the bets are on the Under as of Sunday morning, so I'll happily go up against the public.
