The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 21, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Philies blew a late lead against the Miami Marlins on Sunday afternoon, but still managed to win the series. Philadelphia has a quick turnaround and hits the road to take on the red-hot New York Mets.
The Mets swept the Cardinals over the weekend and are in first place in the NL East. Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phils, and Tylor Megill will oppose him.
The Phillies are +105 underdogs on the money line, with the game total at 8.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Mets Prediction
- Phillies vs Mets picks:Phillies ML +105 (PLAY TO PK)
My Phillies vs Mets best bet is Phillies moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -102o / -118u | +105 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8 -102o / -118u | -125 |
Phillies vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Tylor Megill (NYM) | Stat | RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 0-4 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 1.40/3.51 | ERA /xERA | 6.65/4.00 |
| 2.21/3.40 | FIP / xFIP | 4.51/3.44 |
| 1.34 | WHIP | 1.66 |
| 15.1% | K-BB% | 16.0% |
| 45.6% | GB% | 50.0% |
| 115 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 97 | Location+ | 103 |
John Feltman’s Phillies vs Mets Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Nola's Numbers Open Opportunities
Nola's recent struggles are concerning, but he settled down after a rough first inning in his last outing against the Giants. Although his numbers have declined over the past few years, he remains an effective starting pitcher.
He has a 51% ground-ball rate, which would be a career-best for him, and his whiff rate is also well above league average. His walks have gotten him into trouble, so he must limit them to get himself back on track.
He faces a familiar foe in the Mets tonight, who have hit him well in the past. I'll touch on those specifics during the Mets breakdown, but they are batting .270 against him.
The Phillies are also a worse offensive team against right-handed pitching thus far, and their numbers against Megill are less than desirable. In 98 at-bats, the Phils are batting .198 against Megill.
Given the circumstances, it does not seem like a great matchup, but this is an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Phillies. Despite blowing a late lead, they didn't use much of their bullpen yesterday, so their high-leverage arms should be fresh and ready to go.
Also, Megill's ERA is 1.40, and metrics suggest it should be closer to 3.50. That is certainly respectable, but he is overperforming thus far.
It might take a turn or two around the batting order to get going, but the Phillies are a live, dog as long as Nola's control is in better form.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Time to Leave the Mets Bandwagon?
The red-hot Metropolitans smell blood in the water and can build upon their division lead if they take care of business against the Phillies this week.
The Mets entered the season with a handful of rotation questions, especially with Sean Manaea starting the season on the IL, but Megill has stepped up with his aforementioned sparkling 1.40 ERA.
His chase rate is above league average (31%), and he has limited his opponents to a 5.2 barrel rate. However, he is still getting struck, and his ground-ball rate is not sustainably low enough to keep his ERA that low.
He does benefit from facing the Phillies tonight, who he has done well against in the past, but I'd be concerned about the regression monster. Allowing hard contact with a loaded lineup is also begging for trouble.
The Mets have done well against Nola in the past, especially with the long ball. Pete Alonso has six career homers against Nola, and Juan Soto has three.
Nola has allowed 14 homers to these Mets hitters in 274 plate appearances. That should bode well for the offense, but Nola has done a better job keeping the ball in the park in 2025.
The Mets' pitching staff has been outstanding, but I wonder if they are due for some regression moving forward. They have a 2.35 ERA, which is by far the best in baseball.
They deserve their flowers, but their pace is unsustainable. Their staff as a whole is underrated, but not a 2.35 ERA staff by any stretch.
They've been red-hot lately, but this may be the time to hop off the wagon.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
I am taking a shot with the Phillies tonight. I am worried about Nola's numbers against the Mets offense, but better days are ahead.
He will not be the Nola of old moving forward, but should perform much more efficiently as the year progresses. We saw him settle in nicely against the Giants last week, so that could be something he builds on.
I am also fading Megill and the Mets bullpen, which I feel has overachieved thus far.
Megill has been strong against the Phillies in the past, but has also flirted with danger. The Phils have a bad taste in their mouth after yesterday, so I'll happily take a shot that their offense pulls through against Megill.
Pick:Phillies ML +105 (PLAY TO PK)
Phillies vs Mets Parlay
- Nick Castellanos +600
- Pete Alonso +400
- Juan Soto +370
I am also going to parlay three hitters to go deep tonight.
