PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Randy Vasquez Over 5.5 Hits (-120)
Padres vs Phillies | 6:40 p.m. ET
The hits allowed market is tricky.
Not only do you have to gauge the pitcher’s proclivity for giving up knocks, but you also have to keep an eye on how quickly the manager could potentially pull said hurler from the game.
In terms of this bet, the stars align nicely on both ends, offering solid value on the over.
Vasquez has allowed 51 hits across 38 1/3 innings this year, including six or more in four of his past five starts.
He pitches to contact, ranking in the ninth percentile among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate and the 93rd percentile in walk rate (for context, he’s only struck out or walked 33 of the 169 batters he’s faced this season).
He's also struggled against lefties, allowing 26 hits in just 58 at-bats (yes, that’s a .448 average).
The Phillies should be able to capitalize against the Padres' righty today. Likely to start five or six lefties, they’ll also get star shortstop Trea Turner (hitting .346) back after his lengthy injury absence. Tack on Alec Bohm (.302), and Vasquez won’t find much breathing room against today’s lineup.
As a team, the Phillies are hitting .249 at home against righties, including the sixth-highest hard-contact rate (33.4%).
While Vasquez’s workload had been monitored to begin the season, the Padres might not have a choice but to stick with him deep into this game. The Padres needed their bullpen to get 13 outs in each of their past two contests.
Rotation stalwarts Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove both remain out with injuries, which jolts Vasquez up the pecking order.
My projection has Vasquez yielding 6.5 hits tonight, making the over one of my favorite bets on Monday's slate.
Pick: Randy Vasquez Over 5.5 Hits (-120, Draftkings) | Play to 5.5 (-135)
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