With its season on the line, New York put together a massive 7-3 win Saturday to knot the Wild Card series at one with San Diego after a four-run seventh inning put the game out of reach.
The Mets open as -140 favorites for Sunday's loser-go-home Game 3, in a starting pitching matchup which will feature Joe Musgrove against Chris Bassitt, with both likely to be on considerably short leashes.
Will New York survive a scare in the Wild Card round Sunday?
Padres vs. Mets Odds
| Padres Odds | +122 |
| Mets Odds | -144 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 (-124/+102) |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Will Soto and the Padres Bats Step Up Against Bassitt?
The Padres were stifled by Jacob deGrom and a trio of elite relievers Saturday, but obviously there's not a lot of shame in that. The Padres could be well situated to put together a better offensive day in this do-or-die spot against Bassitt.
Offensively, San Diego's biggest weakness this season has been its struggles against the fastball. This should set up an appealing matchup with Bassitt, as he has relied upon the fastball far less than most starters.
San Diego has hit to positive pitch values versus each of the slider, cutter, changeup and curveball. The Padres will hope a matchup with Bassitt allows them to hide their -22.1 pitch value versus the fastball.
San Diego's lineup may not be clicking at full potential yet, particularly with Juan Soto moving the needle far less than expected, but still has been reasonably effective of late with a 103 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
On the mound for San Diego, Musgrove has pitched to a stellar 2.93 ERA this season with strong underlying numbers, including a 3.27 xERA and a 3.47 xFIP.
Musgrove's fastball holds an average 2551 Spin Rate, which is among the best in baseball and has helped keep batters out in front of his secondary stuff.
Mets Hitters Should Thrive Against Righties
With so much noise being made about New York's 10.5-game collapse in the NL East capped off by the Braves' sweep, it seems like many have forgotten that this offense was elite and that the Mets are unquestionably a very strong team.
From the start of September, New York has hit to the second-best wRC+ in the league of 127 and has struck out just 18.9% of the time.
When true to form, this Mets offense sees lots of pitches and features a number of scrappy members of the lineup who are irritating in the batter's box.
The Mets have historically hit Musgrove well, with a .427 xSLG rate in 99 plate appearances and an actual .247 average.
New York will be in its favorable batting split against a righty here, as the Mets' 112 wRC+ was the second-best in the league versus right-handed pitching this season.
Bassitt has been a steady third option as he has pitched to a 3.46 xERA with a 3.72 xFIP. However, he certainly doesn't feature the kind of stuff that will blow batters away, which could be concerning entering this matchup.
It will be all hands on deck behind Bassitt, and at the first sign of struggle, we could see an early hook in favor of the Mets' quality relievers in this spot.
Edwin Diaz threw 28 pitches Saturday but should be used again Sunday. Although the game may have seemed out of reach when he pitched with a five-run eighth inning lead, we have seen some shocking collapses this weekend, and he didn't allow that to happen with the season on the line.
Padres-Mets Pick
Both teams have narratives at play suggesting we could see some runs come across in this contest, and consequently, a total of 6.5 is a half-run low. The strong offenses for both teams should have the edge against two solid but not elite starters, especially Bassitt.
Musgrove faces a tough matchup himself versus the Mets offense that thrives on right-handed pitching. Expect New York to scrap some runs together off of Musgrove before getting into a bullpen which has offered some shakiness.
The Padres offense should also show signs of life against Bassitt on Sunday in a better matchup with his minimal fastball usage.
San Diego as a slight underdog may be a trendy play considering Musgrove's perceived edge over Bassitt, but I could see New York's lineup coming out hot and building on last night's performance, which scares me. Instead, I'll back both lineups against the starters by playing the over at 6.5 with value down to -125.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-115 | Play at 6.5 to -125)
