Dodgers vs. Padres Odds | Thursday, March 21
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8.5 -120/-102 | +159 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8.5 -120/-102 | -191 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres on Thursday, March 21, including odds and a prediction for the MLB Seoul Series 2024.
The second game of MLB's Seoul Series will once again feature the Dodgers and Padres with an intriguing MLB debut on the mound for Los Angeles. Heralded starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto is set to take the mound for the Dodgers, and San Diego's Joe Musgrove will oppose him.
Continue reading for my Dodgers vs. Pacres pick and preview on Thursday, March 21.
San Diego Padres
Joe Musgrove's 2023 season was delayed by a toe injury and ended prematurely due to a shoulder injury, but over his final 12 appearances, Musgrove carried a 1.84 ERA.
Musgrove has pitched like an ace in three out of the past four seasons (xERA marks of 3.11, 3.27, 3.89, 3.16). He posted a 102 Pitching+ rating in 2023 (106 Stuff+) behind a wide arsenal featuring five above-average offerings (sinker, cutter, slider, curveball, changeup, all better than 100 Stuff+).
Musgrove's projected FIP range for 2024 is between 3.82 and 3.98, and his pitching plus projected ERA is within that range of outcomes.
Musgrove has permitted a .750 OPS across 217 plate appearances against current Dodgers hitters. Freddie Freeman (13-29, 5 BB, 4 K, 1.254 OPS) and Max Muncy (10-28, 7 BB, 9 K, 1.071 OPS) have done most of the damage.
Despite his struggles against those lefties, Musgrove showed reverse splits in 2023 (3.36 xFIP vs. righties, 4.11 vs. lefties) and has relatively neutral splits for his career.
San Diego started Tyler Wade ahead of rookie Graham Pauley in Game 1. Perhaps they prefer Wade's defense at the hot corner. Wade has a career 73 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and Pauley is projected closer to a league-average hitter for 2024.
San Diego used seven pitchers in relief on Wednesday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see starters like Michael King, Dylan Cease or Matt Waldron emerge from the bullpen with a long break before the Padres' next games that count. Tragically, they ultimately left KBO veteran Woo-Suk Go off of their Seoul Series roster.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who recorded the pitching triple crown in Japan for three consecutive seasons, will make his major-league debut in Korea. Projection systems call for a FIP range of 3.61-3.96, but limited pitch modeling data puts Yamamoto closer to a 3.5 expectation.
Yamamoto has elite control over a dominant fastball, a devastating splitter, and a rainbow Ginoza Curveball.
By pitch characteristics, his fastball is most similar to Kevin Gausman's, his curveball similar to Adam Wainwright's, and his splitter is likely better than Shohei Ohtani's. Yamamoto can also mix in a cutter and has the potential to compete for a Cy Young right away.
As I noted before Game 1, the Dodgers have the better lineup in this matchup — with seven of the 10 best hitters in this contest — but they are also the better position player group both on the base paths and defensively.
I give Yamamoto a similar advantage over Musgrove (roughly half a run on an ERA projection) as I do the Dodgers' bullpen against the Padres' bullpen.
As a result, the Dodgers maintain their favoritism in Game 2. And even though I see a less drastic projected price differential between the first five innings (F5) and the full game (Dodgers +1.8% F5 vs. full game) than the Tyler Glasnow-Yu Darvish matchup (Dodgers +4.17% F5 vs. full game), there's still potentially value on Los Angeles in the first half.
Dodgers vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
I projected the Los Angeles Dodgers as -164 favorites (62.2% implied) for Game 2 of the Seoul Series. I make them -178 favorites (64% implied) for the first five innings (F5) or first half.
As a result, I don't see value concerning the full game moneyline, but you can take the Dodgers' F5 moneyline up to -170 (63% implied) at a one percent edge compared to my projected price.
I projected the F5 total at 4.65 runs and the full game total at 8.76 runs for Thursday morning's contest, and I don't see value concerning either the Over or Under at current prices. I would take Under 9 at even money.
