The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles on June 19, 2025. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
Read our Orioles vs Rays prediction and MLB pick below.
My Orioles vs Rays Prediction
- Orioles vs Rays Picks: Orioles ML (+115, BetMGM)
My Orioles vs Rays best bet is on Baltimore's ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Rays Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -140 |
Orioles vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| Charlie Morton (BAL) | Stat | Drew Rasmussen (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | W-L | 6-4 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 6.05 / 4.36 | ERA / xERA | 2.55 / 3.55 |
| 4.77 / 4.14 | FIP / xFIP | 3.52 / 3.41 |
| 1.66 | WHIP | 0.95 |
| 12.2 | K-BB% | 16.6 |
| 42.3 | GB% | 49.8 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 94 | Location+ | 102 |
Orioles vs Rays Prediction, Betting Analysis
One of our Bet Labs betting systems — powered by Evan Abrams — popped up for this game.
Small Contrarian Dogs vs. Winning Teams targets underdogs between +100 and +165 that are receiving less than 30% of the moneyline handle against an opponent with a winning record. It has been highly profitable historically, generating an 8.6% return on investment (ROI) since 2005.
I’m terrified of backing Charlie Morton and the Orioles, but I don’t believe they’re as bad as their record indicates. After going 18-34 in April and May, they’re 10-6 this month, behind a +15 run differential. The lineup is finally healthy and looking dangerous, posting 118 wRC+ over the past fortnight.
Meanwhile, I think the Rays' offense is bound to regress eventually, as they’ve been white-hot over the past month, posting an MLB-leading 133 wRC+.
I also think Tampa's starting pitcher, Drew Rasmussen, is due for regression (2.55 ERA, 3.55 xERA), as he's running a super-low BABIP (.241) and super-high strand rate (84.1%).
Tampa ranks first in reliever xFIP over the past month (3.24), but Baltimore ranks second (3.50). The Rays used Pete Fairbanks, Garrett Cleavinger and Edwin Uceta during Wednesday’s game, so I wonder if any of them will be unavailable.
On the whole, I’m willing to take a contrarian stab at the O’s in Tampa on Thursday.
Pick: Orioles ML (+115, BetMGM)
Moneyline
Bet the Orioles on the moneyline tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
There is no play on the run line.
Over/Under
There is no play on the total.
