PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Orioles Over 3.5 Runs First 7 Innings (-110)
Orioles vs. Cardinals | 7:45 p.m. ET
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A market I’ve enjoyed some success in recently is first seven inning team totals. Today, I’m loving the Orioles to score at least four runs in the first seven frames.
Facing off against Lance Lynn, Baltimore should enjoy a solid platoon advantage. The Orioles are projected to start six southpaws and Lynn has allowed a .821 OPS to lefties this season, as well as a .911 OPS to lefties last season.
After a solid April, Lynn has regressed in May, allowing 14 runs over 14 2/3 innings across three starts. Against Lynn’s two primary pitches, the four-seam fastball and cutter, the Orioles rank eighth and first in runs above average per 100 pitches, respectively.
And after Lynn, the Orioles would face off against a Cardinals' bullpen that’s pitched to a 4.33 ERA over the past 30 days. It's also important to note Baltimore would likely face lower-leverage relievers prior to the eighth inning.
The Orioles have averaged 3.98 runs in the first seven innings this season. With the temperatures expected to be in the 80s at first pitch, and winds blowing out, I’m expecting some fireworks tonight.
