Orioles vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -104 | 8.5 -110/ -110 | -1.5 +172 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -112 | 8.5 -110/ -110 | +1.5 -210 |
The Baltimore Orioles will look to expand their 6.5-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays atop the AL East in a trade-deadline matchup.
Hyun-Jin Ryu will make his season debut for the Blue Jays after receiving modified Tommy John surgery last June. The Orioles will counter with Kyle Bradish, who owns a 3.29 ERA across 104 IP.
Find an Orioles vs. Blue Jays betting pick and prediction for Tuesday, August 1 below.
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto eased Alek Manoah's return to the majors earlier this month with a start versus the Tigers, but that luxury is not being afforded to Ryu. The Orioles offense has crushed left-handed pitching this season with a ninth-best wRC+ of 109 vs lefties.
Barring any surprise absences or trades, Cedric Mullins should remain the only notable absence for this matchup.
Kyle Bradish paying off his potential at age 26 has been a key to the Orioles' surprising lead atop a fierce AL East. He has a 3.29 ERA in 104 innings with a WAR of 1.9, which ranks fifth on the team.
Bradish's 4.13 xERA and 3.84 xFIP suggest some regression is likely on the horizon, but Bradish's underlying profile is still solid and has been improving relative to earlier in the year. His Strikeout Rate has trended upwards to 22.9% over the last month, and his xwOBA has come down across the last 100 plate appearances.
With a Stuff+ rating of 162, Bradish's slider rates as one of the best in the league and has been one of the keys to his improved results relative to last season, as well as his curveball with a 137 rating. He is throwing the slider 30% of the time and the curveball 17.9% of the time, and batters own xSLG rates of .355 and .275, respectively.
Bradish owns a 123 Stuff+ rating and 102 Location+ rating across all of his pitches.
Toronto Blue Jays
Hyun-Jin Ryu's return to the majors should make for a very interesting watch. The 2019 ERA leader's improved physique has been well documented, and it is clear that the 36-year-old has worked diligently toward a career revival.
In Ryu's final rehab start with Triple-A Buffalo, he threw six innings and allowed two runs on three hits, which included two homers. Ryu's fastball averaged 88 mph in the start and topped out at 90.8 mph. In 18 rehab innings, Ryu's dominant command was on full display, as he walked just one batter.
Perhaps Ryu can post better results than in 2021 and 2022 when he posted ERAs of 5.67 and 4.37, respectively, but it is hard to imagine better than league-average results considering his arsenal. By no means is velocity a key to Ryu's game, but batters will not need to respect a fastball averaging 88 mph, and that makes life much tougher for Ryu's soft stuff.
Ryu was hard-hit more than 40% of the time in the last two seasons. Even if he posts notably better results with an arsenal that should remain similar, he would still be worse than league average.
Ryu will exit into a deep Blue Jays bullpen that has been quite good recently and should be a strength down the stretch.
The most important news for Jays fans today will not come in the form of a trade, but in any potential update about AL hit leader Bo Bichette. Bichette exited Monday's contest with right knee discomfort, and his non-contact injury could likely be of the serious variety.
His bat will be missed from a Blue Jays lineup that has been strong but still underachieved relative to lofty expectations, due to an inability to hit with RISP. Toronto owns a wRC+ of 112 over the last 30 days, with a wOBA of .332.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Betting Pick
There is a good deal of uncertainty around Ryu entering this start, and considering the tough matchup, I'm happy to attack that. Reports regarding Ryu's rehab performances were positive, but it is still hard to see him dominating this Orioles lineup.
Bradish may not be as dominant as his 3.29 ERA suggests, but he has still been solid and deserves to be viewed as providing an edge over Ryu until proven otherwise.
Attacking some alternative Orioles team totals could be reasonable to try and target the portion of the time Ryu's night is a disaster, but there is value with the Orioles on the moneyline at anything better than -105.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -104 |
