The Seattle Mariners host the New York Yankees on May 14, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Mariners regrouped after a costly error by Dylan Moore in the ninth inning of Tuesday's matchup to earn a 2-1 win in the 11th inning.
They will now have the opportunity to win the series when Will Warren (4.75 ERA, 36 IP) takes on Luis Castillo (3.95 ERA, 43 1/3 IP) in the series finale.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Yankees vs Mariners Prediction
- Yankees vs Mariners Picks: Yankees ML (-115, bet365 | Play to -125)
My Yankees vs Mariners best bet is on the Yankees ML. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Yankees vs Mariners Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -110o / -110u | -102 |
Yankees vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Will Warren (NYY) | Stat | RHP Luis Castillo (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 4.75 / 4.37 | ERA /xERA | 3.95 / 4.00 |
| 3.60 / 3.43 | FIP / xFIP | 4.10 / 4.74 |
| 1.36 | WHIP | 1.38 |
| 15.8 | K-BB% | 7.9 |
| 46.5 | GB% | 46 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 103 | Location+ | 103 |
Nick Martin’s Yankees vs Mariners Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Warren Hopes to Continue Momentum
Warren enters this matchup off the best start of his young career, allowing just one earned run on four hits on Friday versus the Athletics — he posted a 2.97 xFIP and 114 Pitching+ in that start.
Learning to pitch at the big league level has been a struggle for Warren, but some signs suggest the highly regarded prospect can figure it out. He's posted a 101 Stuff+ and 105 Pitching+ mark with a 3.43 xFIP.
Warren has allowed a slug rate of .600 with men on, and that mark looks to be more than bad luck, as he has allowed a 39.5% hard-hit rate with runners on compared to a 30.6% hard-hit rate with the bases empty. If he can perform better in those situations, his results will improve dramatically.
The Yankees will provide a tough matchup for Castillo, as they've posted a 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past two years, the top mark among MLB lineups. They've posted a 128 wRC+ against the side this season behind a whopping .890 OPS.
Jazz Chisholm is slugging .444 against righties, so his absence from the lineup somewhat hurts the Yankees' upside.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Castillo Tries to Rebound After Rough Stretch
Castillo looked to be due for negative regression entering his last start versus the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday, and he predictably struggled, allowing five earned runs and seven hits across five innings.
Castillo's pitch metrics suggest he is pitching at a significantly lower level than he has throughout his career (94 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+). Those metrics have regressed in the past three starts (89 Stuff+, 94 Pitching+).
All the underlying statistics agree — Castillo isn't the same guy. He's posted a 7.9% strikeout minus walk rate with a 4.00 xERA and 4.74 xFIP. He's not generating any swing-and-miss and has allowed a 43.1% hard-hit rate on contact.
Seattle's offense has regressed after a scorching hot start to the season, as the Mariners have posted a 101 wRC+ over the past two weeks behind a 31.8% hard-hit rate. They have been one of the bigger overachievers so far, so this regression is unsurprising.
Yankees vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup presents an excellent opportunity to continue fading Castillo, as the Yankees smash right-handed pitching.
Castillo is getting too much credit for what he has accomplished in the past, as his underlying profile suggests that he is pitching at a below-league-average level this season.
While Warren should be likely to get some strong run support early on in this matchup, it's also possible that he will continue turning the corner after a dominant outing on Friday. He has the stuff to perform at a higher level than we have seen, and he should start to produce better with more experience (and confidence) at this level.
It's hard to dispute that the Yankees are the toughest matchup in baseball for a right-handed starter right now. With that in mind, their chances of winning are undervalued, given that Castillo does not look to offer much of an edge over Warren.
Pick: Yankees ML (-115, bet365 | Play to -125)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Yankees to win is my favorite bet from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Yankees to cover the run line at +145 also looks to provide value and could be a good option given the possibility of a Castillo blow-up.
Over/Under
A total of 8 looks to be fair for this matchup, given that it will be played at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
Yankees vs Mariners Parlay
- Will Warren to record the win
- Luis Castillo Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Parlay odds: +300 (bet365)
At +300, there looks to be value with our parlay revolving around an ugly outing from Castillo against the Yankees' high-powered offense.
Castillo will continue to get a reasonably long leash based on the pitcher he has been historically, and New York appears likely to manage three earned runs off of him in most game scripts.
If Castillo is to allow over 2.5 earned runs, Warren should be able to manage five respectable innings often enough for there to be value with this parlay at +300.
Yankees vs Mariners Betting Trends
