The Washington Nationals (11-14) host the New York Mets (18-7) on April 25, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY and MASN.
The Mets are scorching hot after a 7-0 homestand and have built a five-game lead in the NL East. The Nats are coming off a tough 2-1 loss yesterday, but did win their series against the Orioles. They'll send Jake Irvin to the mound to take on Mets ace Kodai Senga.
Find my Mets vs Nationals prediction below.
Mets vs Nationals Prediction & Prop Pick
- Mets vs Nationals pick: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases -115 (Bet to -125)
My Mets vs Nationals best bet is for Francisco Lindor to go over 1.5 total bases. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Nationals Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | -185 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | +150 |
Mets vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kodai Senga (NYM) | Stat | RHP Jake Irvin (WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 0.79/2.59 | ERA /xERA | 3.68/5.01 |
| 2.89/4.02 | FIP / xFIP | 4.65/3.70 |
| 0.97 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 14.9% | K-BB% | 17.1% |
| 40.7% | GB% | 40.2% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 100 | Location+ | 107 |
Mets vs Nationals Preview, Prediction
Mets Betting Preview: Bats Heating Up
The Mets are the hottest team in baseball and what is remarkable is that their biggest offseason acquisition, Juan Soto, has yet to heat up. They have the lowest team ERA (2.34), which is the biggest reason for their success.
Kodai Senga gets the ball for New York tonight and enters the matchup with a 0.79 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. The Nationals have faced Senga in only 18 plate appearances and are batting .200.
In 40 at-bats, right-handers are batting .100 against Senga, whereas lefties are batting .282. That is a tad concerning, considering the Nats lineup features C.J. Abrams and James Wood at the top.
Senga has an excellent arm that rarely allows hard contact. The 3.4 barrel rate is amongst the league's upper echelon of starting pitchers.
His 2.59 xERA suggests he should pitch slightly worse than his current ERA, but that is still an excellent sign moving forward. Senga may not be as flawless tonight as in his previous starts, but he should perform well enough to give the Mets a chance to win.
Offensively, the Mets are averaging a little over four runs per game, so their offense has yet to take off. Despite Pete Alonso's scorching start, their bats have been inconsistent.
The Mets are bottom-10 in BABIP and have a .233 batting average as a team, but tonight, they get a decent matchup against Jake Irvin. However, they are batting .212 on the road, and their splits suggest they hit righties and lefties just as efficiently.
Francisco Lindor has excellent numbers off of Irvin; he is 5-for-11 with two extra-base hits off of him. He's also been heating up at the plate, which has helped pick up the slack for some of his struggling teammates.
The Mets will also get Francisco Alvarez back tonight, adding more power to the everyday lineup. I still have concerns about the offense's consistency, and it is only a matter of time before they cool off as a team.
There is no way I will lay -175 juice on the Mets tonight, even with their best pitcher on the mound.
Nats Betting Preview: Trouble Brewing for Irvin?
Last night, the Nats got another strong performance from MacKenzie Gore, but their offense failed to provide any run support. Still, it was an impressive week for the Nats, as they continue to play decent baseball.
C.J. Abrams has returned, making the top of their lineup much more formidable. They draw a tough matchup against Senga, but he has been much worse against left-handed hitters than right-handers.
It is possible the Nats can score some runs against Senga, but it all depends on what their starting lineup shapes out to be.
The biggest concern I have is that Irvin enters tonight with a 3.68 ERA, but his xERA is 5.01. He also allows hard contact and does not generate many whiffs or chases.
The Mets offense does not strike out too often, which leads me to believe they will put many balls into play tonight. That spells trouble for Irvin, who has benefited from good fortune thus far.
In 60 plate appearances, the Mets have only struck out 12 times against Irvin. His track record tells me he is a mediocre pitcher at best, and I cannot back the Nats tonight solely because of that.
Mets vs Nationals Prediction & Prop Pick
I don't love either side of the matchup too strongly, but I really like a player prop. I am taking Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases at -115.
I love the matchup for Lindor, and he's been highly successful against Irvin in 10 plate appearances. Lindor has been scorching hot at the plate, quickly turning things around from his cold start.
He has a .497 xSLG and .313 xBA against breaking balls, which Irvin's arsenal mainly consists of. He could clear this in one plate appearance, but I think this is an excellent opportunity to take advantage of his hot streak.
Pick: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases -115 (Bet to -125)
