The San Francisco Giants (54-59) host the New York Mets (59-44) on Friday, July 25, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBC Sports Bay Area and WPIX.
The Mets enter Friday on a four-game winning streak — can they stay hot against Logan Webb and the Giants?
Find my Mets vs Giants prediction and pick for Friday night below.
New York Mets vs Giants Prediction, Pick
- Mets vs Giants pick: San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-144)
My Mets vs Giants best bet is the Giants to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Giants Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -189 | 7.5 -101o / -121u | +118 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +153 | 7.5 -101o / -121u | -144 |
Mets vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Clay Holmes (NYM) | Stat | RHP Logan Webb (SF) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | W-L | 9-7 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.5 |
| 3.48 / 4.23 | ERA /xERA | 3.08 / 3.49 |
| 4.21 / 4.07 | FIP / xFIP | 2.58 / 2.69 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 9.4% | K-BB% | 20.5% |
| 55.5% | GB% | 51.8% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 99 | Location+ | 110 |
Mets vs Giants Preview, Prediction
Mets Betting Preview: Holmes in Trouble?
The Mets turned their month of July right around with a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels at home, and now they'll head out west as they look for a fifth straight win.
That's where things could become tricky, however, as this Giants offense needs no assistance with the way they are running.
Mets starter Clay Holmes represents a tasty matchup for the home side with his ground-balling ways, and the numbers this season haven't been all that encouraging.
The righty owns a more or less unassuming .251 Expected Batting Average and .412 Expected Slugging, but he's compounded that with another tough season in the walks department, issuing a free pass to 9.4% of the batters he's faced.
The season hasn't exactly trended well for Holmes, either. He's seen his xBA jump to .275 this month, and while the xSLG has made its way down since May, it's hardly a redeeming quality with Holmes' strikeout rate continuing to fall and his walk rate holding steady.
Run support is going to be tough to come by here with New York sitting 23rd in wRC+ over the last two weeks, a figure that surely won't be improving dramatically with a quality arm on the hill for San Francisco.
The onus will certainly be on the veteran to show up here, and while he's had two starts this month that have given his team a chance to win, one of them came against the lowly Kansas City Royals.
Giants Betting Preview: Webb Bounce-Back Spot
If Holmes would like to learn a thing or two, he should watch his counterpart — Logan Webb. The veteran is as heavy a ground-ball pitcher as they come, and after a couple of concerning seasons he's come out with arguably his best stuff in 2025.
Yes, the xBA is once again sitting above the league average, but for a guy who's been so predicated on rolling up groundouts, that's to be expected. The Giants' infield hasn't exactly been stellar this season, either, but in June they ranked fifth with +8 Outs Above Average before dipping just below the league average in July.
Regardless of how well the gloves play, however, Webb has found a way to strike batters out this season and remove the volatility brought on by a heavy contact approach. He's sat down 25.8% of the batters in his way, and he continues to carry one of the lowest walk rates in the game.
If there's any hope to be found here for the Mets, it's that Webb's month has been somewhat rocky. He's rolling into Friday with a 6.00 ERA across three July starts, and the tough pill to swallow is the fact that he's struck out just 13 in 18 innings with two home runs allowed.
The long balls are an outlier, and Webb was dealt a tough hand with the Dodgers and Blue Jays on the schedule, so perhaps this is a bounce-back spot.
He's also posted a brutal .301 xBA this month with a slow — yet steady — drop in ground balls, so perhaps some of the shine is wearing off.
Mets vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a really terrific spot to play an already-hot Giants offense. This team carries a sustainable .248 average over the last two weeks, backed by a reasonable .290 BABIP, and its .186 Isolated Power is a strong figure.
San Francisco critically ranks ninth in OPS to ground-ball pitchers, too, compared to 28th in the reverse split — a stunning discrepancy.
New York, meanwhile, has been a hair better against fly-ball arms, but over its last 10 games is hitting just .223 with a poor .148 ISO. Strikeouts have been an issue, too, and it's really been walks that have helped this team avoid the bottom of the league in offensive output.
Webb has been striking batters out for the majority of the season and remains a stalwart in the walks category, meaning there's going to be little reprieve here for the Mets.
I like the stronger of the two pitchers, and the stronger offense with a splits advantage against pitchers like Holmes.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-140) | Play to -152
Moneyline
My bet for this game is the Giants moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no bet for either run line.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
