Nationals vs. Rangers Predictions
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+158 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -130 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-190 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +110 |
The Rangers won the first game of this series Tuesday night behind a dominant performance from Jon Gray, who tossed eight one-run innings.
The Nationals need an all-around better performance to even the series against the defending World Series Champions.
Both pitchers in this game possess similar profiles, but I believe that the difference between these two offenses will be significant early on.
Washington Nationals
Trevor Williams takes the mound for the Nationals tonight. The 32-year-old righty boasts a 2.70 ERA and a 3.00 expected ERA to this point in the year.
However, out of 133 qualified pitchers, Williams ranks 126th in Stuff+ and 122nd in Pitching+. So, his surface-level statistics don't seem to represent his arsenal.
Among qualified pitchers, Williams ranks in the 33rd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and 39th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Additionally, he ranks in the 15th percentile in whiff rate and 27th percentile in strikeout rate.
This season, the Nationals rank 18th in wOBA and 20th in wRC+ among MLB lineups. They've been a bit worse against left-handed pitchers, ranking 21st and 22nd in these two categories.
They are also 16th in xwOBA and 23rd in xwOBACON. The Nationals were a bit of a surprise to begin the season, but the bats have cooled off quickly.
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Texas Rangers
Andrew Heaney comes into this start with a 0-3 record and a 6.26 ERA. However, he boasts a 4.67 xERA, which would align more with his career average.
The difference between these ERA figures has been mainly due to cluster luck, as he has just a 56% strand rate this season, which should regress towards his career average of 73.7%.
Heaney’s peripheral numbers this season align with his typical performance as a pitcher. He ranks in the 36th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 53rd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 37th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. These aren’t excellent marks, but they hardly look like a pitcher with a mid-6.00s ERA.
Out of 133 qualified pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this year, Heaney ranks 119th in Stuff+. He commands his arsenal well, ranking 39th in Location+.
But, ultimately, he remains a back-end rotation option.
Texas can hit, ranking eighth among MLB lineups in ISO, 10th in wOBA and 12th in wRC+. Against righties, the Rangers rank eighth in all three categories.
Statcast metrics aren’t as kind to Texas. The Rangers rank 24th in exit velocity, 15th in barrel rate, and 22nd in hard hit rate. However, they put the ball in the air plenty, ranking 28th in ground ball rate, allowing them to amass better power numbers despite their mediocre batted-ball figures.
Nationals vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Trevor Williams has had a solid start to the season, but this is likely not a breakout as much as it is just a small sample-size success. His Stuff+ and Statcast metrics don’t indicate long-term success.
Heaney fits a similar pitcher profile as Williams, but the matchup against a below-average Washington offense is a bit more favorable for him.
The Rangers are rightfully heavy favorites to win this game, but I see more value with them in the first five innings due to the starting pitching matchup. Ultimately, I don't love the matchup for Williams.
I like taking the Rangers run line for the first five innings, which is currently priced at -130, and I would take this to -135.
