Nationals vs. Padres Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +160 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -192 |
With a 6-4 record over their last 10 games, the Nationals sit only a half-game back of the Padres for the final NL Wild Card spot.
The Nationals, however, are +172 moneyline underdogs in the Monday series opener at Petco Park as Patrick Corbin is slated to take on knuckleballer Matt Waldron. Corbin has pitched to a 4.60 ERA in three starts in June, but he still owns a 5.60 ERA overall.
Corbin is arguably the worst regular starting pitching in MLB, and for my Nationals vs Padres pick, I'll be looking to fade him with a Padres player prop.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals' starting pitching staff has combined for a 3.86 ERA this season (13th). Corbin, however, has been the worst member of the staff — the good news is that he is nearing the end of his six-year deal and the rest of the staff has plenty of upside.
While Corbin has pitched to slightly better results recently, his underlying numbers are pretty dreadful. Over his last five starts, Corbin has been hit hard 48% of the time with an xBA of .308.
He has a 6.66 xERA and a 4.57 xFIP. Corbin owns a Stuff+ rating of only 78 and a whiff rate of 20.5%, with a 10.6% barrel-rate. He has allowed a .517 slug this season, which is the highest of any qualified starter in MLB.
As for Washington's bullpen, Nats relievers have pitched to a 4.20 ERA and 3.20 xFIP over the last 30 days.
The Nationals have hit to a wRC+ of 99 versus right-handed pitching over the last month, with an OPS of .707. They have struck-out just 18.3% of the time over that span.
San Diego Padres
The Padres hit left-handed pitching effectively and offer a deep lineup with few below-average batters. Over the last month, the Padres own a wRC+ of 109 against lefties and have struck out just 16% of the time.
Jurickson Profar has slowed up to some extent of late, but he still holds the ninth-best OPS (.896) this season. He has feasted on lefties this year with a .571 slugging percentage and 1.020 OPS. His .331 batting average at Petco Park is the eighth-best mark in MLB, while Corbin's .339 batting average allowed is the worst of any qualified starter. Profar owns a 1.071 OPS in seven at-bats versus Corbin in his career.
Due to his knuckleball usage, Waldron has been a pleasure to watch this season — he has also been a legitimately effective pitcher with a 3.57 xERA and 4.09 xFIP. Batters have hit to an xSLG of only .298 against his knuckleball, which he has thrown 38.5% of the time. His Stuff+ comes in at just 82, but his knuckleball is not effectively quantified.
Nationals vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
Corbin appears to be the worst regular starting pitcher in the National League — thus, he's an excellent target for a number of Padres batters to hit for power.
Profar has excellent results against left-handed pitching, and he has also hit Corbin quite effectively in a small sample in his career. +135 is a great number to target Profar recording over 1.5 total bases, and any price better than +125 is worthy of a bet.
Pick: Jurickson Profar Over 1.5 Total Bases +135 (bet365, Play to +125)
