We're less than a week into this MLB season, and the Boys of Summer are still playing in weather that is very much winter-ish for parts of the country. Taking advantage of those cold weather games is the best way to use weather to gain an edge when placing early season MLB bets.
Here's my favorite weather prop bet of the day for Tuesday, April 2, plus the weather forecast today around MLB.
MLB Weather Over/Under Bets Today
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8 -115o / -105u | +160 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8 -115o / -105u | -190 |
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs: Under 8 Runs
Sometimes, you just need to go back to the well, especially when that well is roughly 39 degrees. The cold temperatures that we'll see for both games in Chicago today are going to limit how well the ball carries. Cold air is dense air, and this is about as cold as it gets during an MLB season.
In a 13-game sample size of similar weather games at Wrigley, we've seen home runs decrease by 20% and runs scored decrease by 8%. I'm riding the cold weather to an Under here, and I'll likely keep doing it until temperatures resemble springtime.
Other bets to consider:
East Coast Unders
I talked about the frigid weather in Chicago, but our Mid-Atlantic games (NY, BAL, PHI) are in a similar spot, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. I particularly like Unders in PHI with cold temps and winds blowing in at 10-15 mph, but buyer beware, there is a high likelihood of rain for our East Coast games, and they might not play at all.
As always I'll stay on the lookout for some weather-winners, and you can follow the MLB weather forecast on RotoGrinders or on X, @KevinRothWx.
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MLB Weather Forecasts for Tuesday, April 2
Weather forecasts for MLB and PGA available every day at Rotogrinders.com. Forecasts only available for outdoor games.
Not great… It's an off and on rain/storms day in BAL all day long, including a batch that models have poised to move in during the game. Cool temps and winds in from right at 10 mph make for decent pitching weather, with the caveat that a delay is fairly likely at some point, and the game might not play at all.
Looks similar to BAL, maybe a hair worse. Off and on rain all day, including a batch in the mid-to-late part of the game. Again, it's solid pitching weather, contingent upon a pitcher getting full run.
It might literally rain from 9 a.m. to midnight, with an hour or so break around gametime. I don't quite think that hour is going to be enough to play ball. I suppose there's a world where they take advantage of some brief clearing and play the rest of the game in light rain, but I'm not too optimistic. If we don't see an early PPD here, I'll re-evaluate.
They may need a brief late start, but the rain clears north around first pitch, and they should be able to play. Cold temps vs. winds blowing out to center at 15-20 mph — I'll take the temps in that battle and call it better pitching weather than hitting weather.
Same forecast as the White Sox game; rain should be clearing in time to play baseball tonight, even if a late start is needed. Winds are left to right and out to right at 15 mph. Again, I think the cold temps are a greater impact than winds and consider this good pitching weather.
8 mph winds out to center-ish right, with temps in the mid 60s.
