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MLB Strikeout Props Tonight
Marlins vs. Nationals
MacKenzie Gore
Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
I've always thought MacKenzie Gore has ace-like stuff, and we're seeing a breakout season from him this year. So he isn't exactly a pitcher I'm dying to fade, especially against the Marlins.
That said, I'm showing decent value on him staying under this number tonight.
The Marlins should be able to send up to eight right-handed hitters to the plate against the southpaw tonight. Gore's top strikeout pitch against righties is his curveball, however, the Marlins have the third-lowest strikeout rate against curveballs this year.
That is by far the best pitch for them in terms of avoiding strikeouts compared to the rest of the league.
Gore's two worst starts this season came against teams that fare much better against curveballs than other pitches (Mets, Blue Jays). The Marlins are a team that fits that description.
In both of those previous games, Gore gave up six runs, got knockout out early, and averaged just three strikeouts across the two matchups.
I'm not saying the Marlins are going to put up six runs tonight, but they should have a lower K-rate than expected against a pitcher like Gore.
I still expect them to strike out, I just see the most likely outcome being exactly six strikeouts for Gore tonight, and I give him around a 63% chance of going under this number.
Pick: MacKenzie Gore Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Rays vs. Braves
Zack Littell
Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
This is an interesting matchup because Zack Littell's approach is generally to try to get ahead in the count and rarely walk hitters or get deep in counts.
The Braves will play right into this, as they swing at the third-highest rate in the league. That also means Littell should be able to get them to chase pitches outside of the strike zone, too.
The key for Littell will be getting to two-strike counts and the best way to do that will be to get a foul ball or two within individual at-bats. Littell allows foul ball at an above-average rate and thee Braves foul off pitches at the third-highest rate in the league.
Once he does get to two strikes, Littell has a nasty slider/split-finger that he likes to throw to put away hitters. The Braves have a top-four whiff rate against both pitches this season.
I'm projecting Littell to clear 4.5 strikeouts around 60% of the time, so getting plus odds on this prop is a nice bonus.
