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MLB Strikeout Props Tonight | Daily Leader Odds, Projections
Top Values
It's a wide-open slate today as seven pitchers have odds of +1000 or lower.
I have Pablo Lopez as the clear favorite of this slate and would have his fair odds around +550. That said, there are potential weather concerns for tonight's Rays-Twins game.
If the game is postponed, this would get voided, but if there is a delay it could force Lopez out of the game early. Thus, I'm going to stay away.
Instead, I'm going with one clear-cut longshot pick in Roddery Munoz of the Marlins at 100-1 against the Cardinals.
Munoz has only pitched 25 innings so far in his rookie season, but he has flashed some strikeout upside and throws five different pitches — four of which have whiff rates over 20%.
The Cardinals are a tougher matchup, but he shouldn't be 100-1 on a fairly wide-open slate, especially one where the clear favorite could face a postponement or delay.
Munoz should be priced closer to 35-1.
Given the wide-open nature of the slate, there are a handful of other longshots who could be worth a sprinkle, as you'll note in my chart above, but Munoz is my favorite of the bunch.
Picks:
- Roddery Munoz (Marlins vs. Cardinals) +10000
MLB Player Prop
Bailey Falter
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Bailey Falter has cleared this number in three straight games, but his recent run in strikeouts doesn't look sustainable.
Falter was able to get his previous three opponents to chase his stuff at a much higher rate, but the Reds chase at the sixth-lowest rate in the league, so this should be a tougher test for him.
On the flip side, it will be an easier matchup for the Reds' lineup, which just had to deal with facing Paul Skenes on Monday.
Plus, the Reds will likely be able to send eight right-handed batters to the plate against the left-handed Falter tonight, and he has a 5% lower strikeout rate against right-handed hitters in his career. So that should ding his strikeout rate even more.
I'm projecting Falter to stay under 4.5 strikeouts around 65% of the time tonight, making the fair odds for this closer to -190.
Jake Irvin
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
The Diamondbacks should have one of the tougher lineups to strike out tonight.
Irvin gets most of his strikeouts off his fastball and curveball, while the Diamondbacks have the lowest K-rate in the league against curveballs and the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against four-seam fastballs.
Irvin's easiest target tonight will be Eugenio Suarez, who will likely be batting seventh in the lineups. That makes it is unlikely Irvin will see him more than twice.
I'm projecting Irvin with a 60% chance of staying under 4.5 strikeouts tonight.
