Today is a wide open market where there are a handful of pitchers with 10+ strikeout upside. In fact, if you look at the percentage chance as to how many strikeouts will take down today's market, it's quite high, with a 48% chance it will take 11 or more.
The two favorites — Andrew Abbott and Tyler Glasnow — seem appropriately priced.
However, there does seem to be some slight value on Corbin Burnes at 10/1, but he just hasn't flashed enough upside this season to feel too great.
At some point he could bust out with a 11+ strikeout performance, and the Reds are a fairly strikeout-friendly team that could allow that.
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Charlie Morton stands out as the pitcher who has enough upside to take this market down and offers pretty good value at 17/1. He also faces a potential Rays lineup that could offer plenty of strikeout upside. He's my favorite play right now.
Luis Castillo, Yu Darvish and Sandy Alcantara all offer some slight value, but if you had your eyes set on them earlier for this market, it seems like at worst, you're at least getting a fairly good number on them right now.
Aaron Civale and Griffin Canning offer some value at +6500. They're unlikely to take down this market with 11+ Ks, but they would benefit if all it takes is eight-to-nine strikeouts. They certainly have that type of upside and +6500 is just a bit too high for both pitchers
Either way, this doesn't seem like a slate where some dark horse will emerge — it'll likely be one of the favorites.
I think the best value right now is on Morton at +1700.
Pick: Morton +1700 |
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