A unique prop market that has emerged at FanDuel this year is daily strikeout leader. The sportsbook lists odds for every starting pitcher on a given day and you can bet on who will finish with the most strikeouts on the slate.
Keep in mind, much like sports such as golf with leaderboards, dead-heat rules do apply. So if a pitcher you bet on ties with another pitcher, your odds are cut in half.
Action Network director of analytics Sean Koerner dives through MLB pitcher props regularly and has found great value in one pitcher from today's slate at long odds to top the leaderboard.
MLB Strikeout Leader for Friday, June 23
A.J. Smith-Shawver may only be 20 years old, but he's been impressive thus far in his young major-league career.
Tonight, Smith-Shawver and the Braves meet the hottest team in baseball, the Cincinnati Reds.
Smith-Shawver only has a 7.43 K/9 rate after three starts at the major-league level, but he has a ton of strikeout upside. His last time out, he had a 16.2% swinging strike rate, so I think the breakout is coming.
Opponents have been swinging at pitches in the zone at a high rate. I bet he regressed toward league average and getting a few more called strikes mixed in will only boost his K rate. It's worth noting that the Reds take pitches in the zone at the second-highest rate in the majors.
The Reds in general sport a lineup with a lot of strikeout upside. It's always possible Smith-Shawver gets knocked around early in a game at Great American Ball Park with a total set at 11, but he has a wide range of outcomes and is exactly the type of pitcher we want to be investing in for this market.
There aren't a ton of pitchers who have a chance to take down this market, and only a handful have enough upside to be contenders. Smith-Shawver is one of them.
And while there may be some rain in the area that puts this game at risk, it doesn't appear as of this writing to be enough to worry about. Meanwhile. Rangers–Yankees and Mets–Phillies may be impacted by rain, which would only benefit this bet as it would lessen the chances of one of the favorites in this category in Kodai Senga.
I'm projecting Smith-Shawver closer to +1400 to be the daily strikeout leader, so we're getting great value at +6500.
Alternatively, I'll also be locking in Smith-Shawver over 4.5 strikeouts (-130 at BetMGM)
Pick: AJ Smith-Shawver Daily Strikeout Leader (+6500) |
