Humpday is one of the best days of this week, as we have a loaded slate of day games on tap. We may need to rename it Bumpday as we target three starters whose success may be limited this afternoon.
As first pitch nears, let's examine our top MLB player props for Wednesday, April 17, including picks for Luis Severino, Jake Irvin, and Brandon Pfaadt.
MLB Player Props for Wednesday, April 17
The New York Mets will give the ball to starter Severino this afternoon, looking to complete a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Severino was a low-risk, high-upside signing this past offseason, and we have seen both sides of him through three 2024 starts.
Overall, Severino has been solid for the Mets, but a closer look reveals that his stuff isn't as good as when in pinstripes. His spin rates are down across his entire arsenal, and that has led to fewer swings and misses, evident by his 25th percentile ranking in whiff rate.
So, while we have already seen him exceed this mark this season, it's unlikely that it will happen again today, even against a Pirates lineup with the ninth-highest team strikeout rate.
We also have a long-standing trend that swings the odds in our favor. Severino has gone under this strikeout prop in 79% of his starts since 2022. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -376.
Lastly, our Action Labs projections support this as well. They have him slated for just 5.5 strikeouts.
Pick: Luis Severino Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
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This is an under where the market tells you the price is wrong.
While Irvin has gone over this total in two of three starts this season, many other books have this priced at -135 or higher.
That pricing is more in line with what we've seen from Irvin throughout his young career. In 27 career starts, he has stayed under this strikeout total 59% of the time.
The under on the hit rate equates to implied odds of -144.
Regarding the matchup, Irvin faces a formidable Dodgers lineup that can do damage quickly. Yes, they rank tenth in team strikeout rate, but given Irvin's penchant for allowing hard contact, I find it hard to believe he makes it through the order a second time.
This line has moved significantly since I bet it at the above price. At the time of writing, DraftKings and Caesars have this priced around -115, which I would still take.
But don't bet this past -125.
Pick: Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)
I am fading Arizona Diamondbacks starter Pfaadt in a few ways, but the best option is to take the under on his outs prop.
Pfaadt eclipsed this mark in his last outing, but I doubt he will replicate that outing.
Pfaadt will face a Cubs lineup that will make him work. The Chicago Cubs rank 19th in team strikeout rate and fifth in team walk rate. So, while his walk rate is much better this season, expect the Cubs to see plenty of pitches and force him to locate his fastball.
In addition to the matchup, we haven't seen Pfaadt work deep into games. That may change this season, but the odds are against it in this matchup.
Overall, he has gone under this outs total in 22 of his 27 career starts. That gives us implied odds of -426 and a massive edge against the current price.
Pick: Brandon Pfaadt Under 17.5 Outs (-108)
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