MLB Player Props Tonight
Diamondbacks vs. Orioles
Cole Irvin
Under 1.5 Walks (-130)
Cole Irvin is a pitcher who doesn't strike out or walk many hitters.
He throw strikes at a very high rate, especially on the first pitch, but he has a low whiff rate. So when hitters swing, they put the ball in play at a very high clip.
The Diamondbacks' whiff rate is the second-lowest rate in the majors, so I'm not expecting them to go deep into the count many times, which will keep Irvin's walk rate low.
I'm projecting Irvin at closer to -190 to stay under 1.5 walks tonight.
Pick: Cole Irvin Under 1.5 Walks (-130)
Phillies vs. Marlins
Ranger Suarez
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
I've been working on a new metric called Put-Away Luck that compares a pitcher's put-away rate for each pitch (with two strikes) compared to all other counts. The idea is to see which pitchers could be due for some positive or negative regression in terms of their strikeout totals.
Ranger Suarez is a pitcher who could be in line for some strikeout regression going forward, specifically with his sinker. He's only been able to generate an 11% whiff rate with his sinker, but has managed to put away hitters 28% of the time with it.
Suarez has cleared this prop in five of his seven starts and I think it's a good time to sell high on him here.
The Marlins should be able to get around eight right-handed bats in the lineup against the southpaw, which should lower his expected K rate.
I'm projecting Suarez closer to -170 to stay under 5.5 strikeouts against the Marlins tonight.
