Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in my discussions below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Wednesday, May 3, which include Kyle Wright, Kyle Gibson and Bo Bichette.
MLB Player Props For Wednesday, May 3
Kyle Wright Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
| Braves @ Marlins | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Wright posted a 23.5% strikeout rate last year and is on pace for a 22% strikeout rate this year. If it holds, it’d be the first time he’s posted back-to-back years with a strikeout rate higher than 20%.
He misses bats now!
Wright has posted an 11.9% swinging-strike rate since the beginning of last season, primarily forcing whiffs with his curveball-heavy approach.
And he’s throwing the curveball more and more, leading to more and more whiffs. That, in turn, is leading to more and more strikeouts.
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Wright has cashed over 4.5 Ks in two of his four starts this year, with one coming against Miami when he struck out six Fish across only 45 pitches with a 45% CSW rate.
Dating back to last season, Wright has cashed over 4.5 Ks in all three starts against the Marlins. Put all three starts together, and Wright has struck out 23 Marlins in 14 innings.
The Fish can be strikeout prone, with their strikeout rate jumping as last season progressed. It has only increased further this year. The Marlins currently boast the eighth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Wright for 5.1 Ks on Wednesday, while BallParkPal’s pitcher simulations have him at 5.2.
Either way, we’re getting a steal with this line.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-135) | Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Kyle Gibson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-172)
| Orioles @ Royals | |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
The Royals are striking out like crazy. They currently boast the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in MLB, allowing 15 of 22 opposing righties to cash their strikeout props.
In steps Gibson, who has eclipsed four strikeouts in three of his last five starts.
I won’t argue that Gibson is a strikeout pitcher, given his strikeout and whiff numbers remain relatively low. However, his sweeper is forcing a 45.2% whiff rate in the early going, and he can neutralize lefties with his changeup.
That gives me hope for his strikeout props in the short term.
Kyle Gibson, Filthy Sweeper and Changeup. 😷
9Ks thru 5. pic.twitter.com/GcK4A6o2dQ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 23, 2023
Either way, our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him for 5.1 Ks on Wednesday, while BallParkPal’s pitcher simulations project him for 5.0 on the dot.
So, over 3.5 strikeouts is a line we must target for Gibson, especially considering the Royals’ tendencies.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-172) | Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
| Blue Jays @ Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Bichette is firing early, posting a 161 wRC+ through 140 PAs. He’s cut his strikeout rate by nearly 8% while keeping up his elite batted-ball profile. He actually leads MLB in hits.
Bichette swings so hard, so it’s nice to see him swing and miss less this season (swinging-strike rate down 2%).
Bo Bichette led the AL in hits in 2021.
Bo Bichette led the AL in hits in 2022.
Bo Bichette is leading the AL in hits in 2023.
And they aren't quiet hits. pic.twitter.com/MKBCfGMfur— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) May 1, 2023
Bichette has only cashed his bases prop in 13 of 29 games this season (45%), but he’s piled up 19 over his last five, including 13 during this series with Boston.
Speaking of Boston, Bichette loves playing there. He has a lifetime .375/.423/.635 slash line at Fenway, good for a 1.058 OPS. He has a whopping 61 total bases in 24 games at the Cathedral.
And I’m sure Bichette is drooling at this matchup.
Bichette is 10-for-24 with four extra-base hits in 27 career PAs against Nick Pivetta, Boston's starting pitcher on Wednesday. He’s slugging .750, but his 91.2 mph average exit velocity adds up to a .752 expected slugging, so I'm not expecting regression.
Ultimately, Bichette is cooking, loves hitting at Fenway and loves hitting off Pivetta.
It’s a perfect storm, and I’ll back him in the bases market.
