Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Wednesday, June 21, including picks for Trevor Williams and Fernando Tatis Jr.
MLB Player Props For Wednesday, June 21
Trevor Williams over 3.5 strikeouts (-166)
| Nationals vs. Cardinals | |
| First Pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
I won't sit here and pretend Trevor Williams is a viable arm. His xERA is in the mid-5.00s, and he's allowed 11 earned over his past 15 innings.
But something is going on with Williams.
Williams has lost a couple of percentage points on the season on his Swinging-Strike and CSW rates (8.2% SwSt, 23.7% CSW) this season. But those seem to be rebounding, as he's posted numbers closer to his career marks over the past month or so (10.8% SwSt, 26.6% CSW).
As a result, Williams has struck out five or more batters in four of his past six starts. He's now eclipsed four strikeouts in nine of 14 starts on the season.
Williams seems to simply be throwing more sliders. The breaking ball has been his best pitch this season, with a -2 Run Value and a 30.2% Whiff rate.
Image credit: @JonPGH
Theoretically, those extra sliders are turning into extra strikeouts.
So, I think Williams is undervalued in the strikeout market, given he's trending back toward career norms but is still being priced on his season-long numbers.
The projection models back up my analysis:
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 4.3 Ks
- BallParkPal Pitcher Sims: 4.6 Ks
- Jon Anderson Daily Projections: 4.4 Ks
Similarly, I won't sit here and tell you the Cardinals are a bad, strikeout-prone offense. But the Redbirds have also been trending in the wrong direction.
The Cards are striking out at the seventh-highest rate in the majors over the past two weeks, and they've allowed nine consecutive opposing starting pitchers to cash their strikeout totals.
You read that right: They've allowed nine consecutive opposing starter pitchers to cash their strikeout totals.
Stretching out that sample size, the Cardinals have allowed 15 of the past 18 opposing starting pitchers to cash their strikeout totals.
Williams struck out six Cardinals in his lone start against St. Louis last season, and I'm pretty comfortable backing him to do it again given the recent trends.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-166)
Action Labs Grade: 6/10
Fernando Tatis Jr. over 1.5 total bases (-105)
| Padres @ Giants | |
| First Pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Tatis is red-hot. He's slashing .400/.488/.814 in June, good for a 1.302 OPS. He's cashed his bases prop in 12 of his past 15 games.
Image credit: @JonPGH
Tatis has also cashed his bases prop in all four games against the Giants this season, compiling 17 bases across the four games.
Tatis has always been a Giant slayer. He has a lifetime 1.001 OPS at Orcale Park, racking up 57 total bases on 13 extra-base hits in 23 career games by the bay.
So, I'm happy to back the hottest hitter in baseball at one of his favorite parks. Tatis also gets the added bonus of a nice double-digit mph breeze blowing out to Oracle's left-center field, which can't hurt.
The Giants are running with a bullpen day today, which seems fine on the surface, given San Francisco boasts the third-lowest reliever expected FIP this year (3.79).
However, the Giants are a tad stretched in that area. Here's their bullpen usage over the past five days:
Image credit: RotoWire
Jon Anderson's daily hitter projections put Tatis around 1.96 total bases on Wednesday night, and BallParkPal's player props tool projects this fair price at around -112.
There's value with Tatis on Wednesday. It's also nice that he's seeing a beach ball out there.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (-105)
