Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in my discussions below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Wednesday, May 3, which include Dylan Cease and Tanner Bibee.
MLB Player Props For Monday, May 8
Dylan Cease over 5.5 strikeouts (-136)
| White Sox @ Royals | |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Cease is having a slight down year. His ERA and xERA are in the mid-4.00s behind a collapse in his fastball velocity and batted ball metrics.
That said, Cease's strikeout metrics haven't dipped considerably (26.2% strikeout rate, 12.2% swinging-strike rate) and the Stuff+ on his arsenal is also still elite, even if it's also down (112 overall, 124 last year). So, while Cease is struggling, he's still a viable option in the strikeout market.
Additionally, I think this is a great buy-low spot for Cease. He's cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in only one of his past four starts, but the other three apperances came against the Orioles and Rays (twice), two of the best lineups in baseball.
Cease will get some reprieve on Monday against Kansas City, which is striking out at the seventh-highest rate in baseball against right-handed pitching this season. Cease took on the Royals thrice last season and recorded 26 strikeouts across 17 2/3 innings, eclipsing eight strikeouts each time.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Cease for 7.5 strikeouts in this one, providing us with loads of value on the relatively low 5.5 (-136) number.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-136)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Tanner Bibee under 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
| Guardians vs. Tigers | |
| First Pitch | 6:10 p.m. |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
There is a lot to like about Bibee. He's a high-floor strike-thrower with a hard, high-90s fastball and three solid secondary offerings (sweeping slider, slow curveball, potentially plus changeup).
Bibee also dominated the minors and has shown promise across his first two major-league starts. He's pitched into the sixth inning in both his apperances this year and even posted eight strikeouts against the Rockies.
However, I think the market is jumping the gun on Bibee in the strikeout market. Posting his strikeout total at 5.5 juiced to the over is high praise for a youngster making his third-ever start in the majors.
Moroever, his Stuff+ numbers are slightly below-average (97) and he ranks below the 50th percentile of pitchers in whiff rate and chase rate. He's struck out 30% of batters faced, but we're working with a very small sample size.
I'd rather trust the projections when it comes to Bibee, given both BallParkPal and The Action Labs Player Props Tool project him for under five strikeouts in this one, even against the strikeout-happy Tigers.
Bibee could only muster five strikeouts across 92 pitches against the Yankees five days ago, and I expect a similar result for him on Monday.
Pick: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
