There are a full 15 games on Monday's MLB card, so there are 30 starting pitchers.
I'm looking to fade two in the strikeout market.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in my discussions below.
MLB Player Props For Monday, April 3
Nestor Cortes under 6.5 strikeouts (-115)
| Yankees vs. Phillies | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Nestor Cortes had a breakout season last year, pitching to an ERA under 2.50 over 158 1/3 innings. After years of bouncing around as a reliever, he's found his spot in the middle of the Yankees' rotation.
Cortes should post over nine K/9 this year, but he's not exactly a strikeout pitcher. He's mostly a fly ball pitcher, using a four-seam and cutter fastball combination with plenty of backspin so hitters swing under the ball (41.9 under% last season on fastballs, 89th percentile).
So, Cortes is more of a contact pitcher, explaining how he only cashed 6.5 strikeouts in 11 of 31 starts during 2022.
Ultimately, seven strikeouts are a lot to ask from Cortes in a single start.
Meanwhile, Cortes is seeing his first regular-season action after missing the beginning of spring training with a hamstring injury. Aaron Boone is likely looking to pull him early or at the first sign of trouble.
The Phillies had a weird three-game set against Texas to open the season and, as a result, are 0-3. However, this lineup finished last season with the sixth-highest wRC+ against southpaws while striking out at a league-average rate.
I expect some regression from a very deep Philadelphia lineup against a pitcher still getting fully stretched out. The Action Labs player props tool projects Cortes for only 6.1 strikeouts on Monday, giving us a solid edge over the line posted at BetMGM.
Pick: Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Ryne Nelson under 4.5 strikeouts (-135)
| Diamondbacks @ Padres | |
| First Pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
It's hard to expect much from Ryne Nelson, who is making only his fourth MLB start.
Nelson was excellent in his three outings last year, registering a 1.47 ERA across 18 1/3 innings. However, he also posted a .156 BABIP and 4.69 xFIP, so plenty of luck was involved.
Nelson throws a four-seam fastball around 70% of the time, a strategy that worked in the lower minors. He posted 13.5 K/9 in High-A and 12.2 K/9 in Double-A.
But those strikeout numbers quickly decreased as he climbed the ranks, as he posted 8.5 K/9 in Triple-A and only 7.9 K/9 in his cup of coffee last year. You can't survive in the show on only a fastball.
In the words of the great Crash Davis in Bull Durham: "You don't need a quadraphonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball!"
Nelson's swinging strike rate was just around 8.5%, and he projects to post around eight K/9 over 100 MLB innings this year. I don't expect him to miss many bats.
Especially not San Diego's bats. The Padres' lineup is deep and smart, as they finished last season with the eighth-lowest strikeout rate and fifth-highest contact rate, then added contact guru Xander Bogaerts in the offseason.
The Padres held Rockies' starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Jose Urena to one single strikeout over 12 innings. I don't expect Nelson to have much more success.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Nelson for only 3.1 strikeouts on Monday, providing us with a huge edge.
Pick: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
