Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB card by adding a few props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in my discussions below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Wednesday, April 19.
Wednesday MLB Player Props
Marco Gonzales Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Mariners vs. Brewers | |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
It's impossible not to take plus money on under 4.5 Ks with Marco Gonzales, who has eclipsed 4.5 strikeouts in 11 of his past 34 starts. That 32% hit rate implies -209 odds to the under.
Yes, the Brewers strike out like crazy, and they've struck out at a top-five rate against southpaws in two straight seasons.
However, the strikeout stats for Gonzales are even worse.
Gonzales' strikeout numbers have decreased for a few years but recently hit new lows. Last season, he recorded a 13.2% strikeout rate with a 9.3% swinging-strike rate, and he's right around those numbers through 10 innings this season.
I'm unsure if Goznales' strikeout rate will ever exceed 15% again, especially with his fastball velocity and spin rate dropping year after year.
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Projections have Gonzales right around 4.5 strikeouts against the Brewers, so getting plus money on the prop is a good bet. Ultimately, I'm always looking to fade Gonzales in this market, especially at a reasonable number.
Pick: Gonzales Under 4.5 Ks (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Jose Berrios Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-136)
| Blue Jays @ Astros | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
I'm not exactly a fan of Jose Berrios, but he's cashed over 4.5 Ks in his first three starts this year with vastly improved strikeout numbers.
After posting a strikeout rate under 20% with Toronto last season, he's back up to 27% in early 2023. That high-20% number is in line with the rest of his career, so maybe he's figured something out.
That "something" could be an increased use of his slurve. He had a whiff rate north of 30% on those pitches last season, and it's up over 40% this season.
It's a small sample size, but the increased usage could correspond with a higher swinging-strike rate and lower contact rate.
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Either way, I'm willing to back Berrios in this market on Wednesday.
The Astros are tough, but Berrios struck out five over 85 pitches in his only start against them last season. And, luckily for him (and us), Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker may be out of the lineup for this one (as always, check the lineup card when that drops).
Either way, the Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Berrios for 5.3 strikeouts in this game, providing us with a solid edge over the line posted at FanDuel.
Pick: Berrios Over 4.5 Ks (-136)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
