Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Monday, July 17, including picks for Logan Webb and Drew Smyly.
MLB Player Props For Monday, July 17
Logan Webb over 5.5 strikeouts (-145)
| Giants vs. Reds | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
If you’re looking for an under-the-radar Cy Young pick, I like Logan Webb. He’s quietly pitching great for a Giants team that’s surprisingly in the NL West race.
Image credit: Pitcher List
The big thing for Webb this season is he re-found his strikeout pizzazz.
Webb posted a career-high 26.7% strikeout rate in 2021, but that number fell to 20.7% in 2022. This year, he’s rebounded to 25.3%.
I’m not 100%, but I think it’s his changeup. Webb’s on pace to post a career-high 29.2% CSW rate on his best pitch – he uses the pitch 37% of the time, and 75% of them go for strikes.
Image credit: Pitcher List
For example, Webb has tossed 86 changeups in his past two starts, resulting in back-to-back double-digit strikeout performances. Seventeen of those changeups resulted in a whiff.
Either way, Webb has now eclipsed six strikeouts in 12 of 19 starts this year and picked up five in four other starts. Projections are unanimous on him eclipsing today’s 5.5 number:
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 6.5 Ks
- BallParkPal Pitcher Sims: 6.7 Ks
- Jon Anderson’s Daily Projections: 6.1 Ks
The matchup is solid. Against righties, the Reds have struck out at the seventh-highest rate in baseball over the past 30 days (24.5%). They’re also in a rut, having scored only three runs in the three games since the All-Star Break.
Also important, the Reds have the sixth-highest whiff rate against changeups this year (35.2%).
In one start against them last year, Webb struck out six Reds across 97 pitches with a 28% CSW rate. I’m willing to bank on him picking up six or more again, especially because he’s striking out so many more batters.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-145)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Drew Smyly under 4.5 strikeouts (-140)
| Cubs vs. Nationals | |
| First Pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | PointsBet |
This number is a tad high for Smyly. Projections are unanimous that he stays under 4.5 Ks:
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 3.9 Ks
- BallParkPal Pitcher Sims: 3.0 Ks
- Jon Anderson’s Daily Projections: 3.9 Ks
Smyly is a pitch-to-contact guy at heart. He succeeds because he suppresses hard contact (34.1% Hard-Hit rate, 87.3 mph avg. EV), not because he strikes out 19% of batters faced.
As a result, Smyly has cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in only seven of his 18 starts this year.
He’s also getting worse, as he’s cashed this number only once in his past six tries.
The biggest issue is the curveball. Smyly is an effective southpaw when he’s spinning and locating the curve well, but he’s highly vulnerable when he’s not.
Lately, Smyly’s been hanging every curve in sight.
Image credit: Baseball Savant
And the Nats present a tough matchup for Smyly. Washington makes a ton of contact – including the eighth-highest contact rate against curveballs – and strikes out at the third-lowest rate against lefties (18.9%).
Smyly faced the Nats earlier this season and recorded only two strikeouts across 84 pitches. That was back when he was still locating the curve alright (down in the zone), but he only managed two whiffs and eight called strikes on 44 thrown.
I expect a similar result for Smyly during this start.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (-140)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
