Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Monday, June 26, including picks for Trevor Williams and Colin Rea.
MLB Player Props For Monday, June 26
Colin Rea over 3.5 strikeouts (-156)
| Brewers @ Mets | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
It's been a fairly average year for Colin Rea, and it's getting worse. He's allowed four earned in three of his past five starts, racking up a 5.13 ERA during the stretch.
However, Rea has also cashed over 3.5 strikeouts in five of his past six starts, recently picking up eight against Baltimore.
His swinging-strike rate is up about 2% during this stretch (11.9%) over his season average (10.7%), and he's struck out over 22% of batters during the time.
For this start, the projection models are all aligned on the over:
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 4.1 Ks
- BallParkPal Pitcher Sims: 4.7 Ks
- Jon Anderson Daily Projections: 4.5 Ks
- RotoWire Player Prop Projections: 3.9 Ks
The Mets are a tough out. They always put the ball in play.
But these Mets have been a disaster recently, posting the fifth-highest strikeout rate (25.3%) and a below-average wRC+ (97) in June. They've allowed five of the past six opposing starting pitchers to cash their strikeout prop.
I'll bank on Rea making it a seventh of eighth.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-156)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Trevor Williams over 4.5 strikeouts (+114)
| Nationals @ Mariners | |
| First Pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Monday features a very small Major League Baseball slate, so this is (both surprisingly and unfortunately) our Action Labs Player Props Tool biggest strikeout prop edge of the day.
However, I quite like this wager.
I wrote a bit about Williams in this column last week, specifically about why you should've bet his Over 3.5 strikeout prop against the Cardinals last Wednesday. He cashed the prop (no big deal), but that's unimportant.
What is important is why Williams cashed the prop.
Williams has been throwing more sliders, his best pitch (-3 Run Value, 30% Whiff rate). For example, the slider was his most-used pitch against the Cardinals, throwing 26 and recording seven whiffs and allowing only one hit.
Image credit: @JonPGH
The increase in sliders has led to a huge rebound in his strikeout numbers after a rough start to the year, making him undervalued in the strikeout market. He's priced as an 8% swinging-strike rate pitcher, but he's closer to 10.5%.
Add in the strikeout-happy Mariners (25.7% strikeout rate, second in MLB) and this is a prop I have to bet.
The computer market backs me up, with four different models projecting Williams to cash this number.
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 4.8 Ks
- BallParkPal Pitcher Sims: 4.6 Ks
- Jon Anderson Daily Projections: 4.8 Ks
- RotoWire Player Prop Projections: 4.5 Ks
This is a good bet at any plus-money number.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+114)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
