Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB card by adding a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in my discussions below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Monday, April 24, which include Cal Quantrill, Mike Trout and Alex Cobb.
MLB Player Props For Monday, April 24
Cal Quantrill under 4.5 strikeouts (-110)
| Guardians vs. Rockies | |
| First Pitch | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I like Cal Quantrill. He'll always be a productive mid-rotation piece who will happily keep the Guardians in games, especially in front of an elite defense.
Quantrill is nothing more, and he certainly isn't a strikeout pitcher.
The most opportunistic projections have Quantrill striking out 110 batters over 25 starts this year, checking in with a 15% or so strikeout rate. So far, he's sitting at 5.4 K/9 and has yet to strike out five batters in a start.
Quantrill just doesn't have the stuff. He has below-average velocity, and his sinker-cutter mix has no movement and can't force whiffs. There was hope for his changeup, but that's missing fewer bats than ever this year.
Anyway, the Rockies strike out at a league-average rate, so I'm not scared of backing their bats in this matchup.
Quantrill has eclipsed four strikeouts in only nine of 37 starts dating back to the start of last season. The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him for 4.3 Ks on Monday, while BallParkPal's pitcher simulations are similarly bleak.
I'm fine fading Quantrill in this market, even if I like his stock overall.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (-110)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Alex Cobb over 4.5 strikeouts (-135)
| Giants vs. Cardinals | |
| First Pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Alex Cobb has been steadily increasing his strikeout numbers over his career, and he really cranked it up after leaving Baltimore for the West Coast.
I don't know how he did it, but Cobb picked up two ticks of fastball velocity in his age-35 season. He's also continually upped the usage of his splitter, a pitch that generates whiffs a third of the time.
Things look good for Cobb in early 2023, as he's cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in three of his first four starts. Cobb has now eclipsed four strikeouts in 18 of 31 starts dating back to the start of last season.
It sure is tough to fade the Cardinals, who check in with some of the best offensive metrics in the sport. They always combine low strikeout rates with high contact and hard-hit rates, generally a disastrous combination for strikeout pitchers.
That said, Cobb hosted the Cardinals last season and struck out eight over only 74 pitches. He induced 19 swinging strikes and a 42% CSW rate, allowing two runs but on only three hits.
Maybe Cobb was having a good day, or the Cardinals were having a bad one. But I'm buying that Cobb has some kind of competitive advantage over St. Louis.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Cobb for 5.5 Ks on Monday, while BallParkPal's pitcher simulations put him over 5.0 as well.
So, there's solid value on the over 4.5 Ks available at BetMGM.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-135)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Mike Trout over 1.5 total bases (+100)
| Angels vs. Athletics | |
| First Pitch | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
There's rarely value in backing the league's best hitters. I understand that betting any guy to cash over 1.5 bases at even money is generally -EV.
That said, Trout has a great matchup today.
In six lifetime PAs against A's starting pitcher Ken Waldichuk, Trout is 4-for-5 with two doubles and a home run. He's generated a 103.9 mph avg. EV with a 16.3-degree avg. launch angle on batted balls, producing an expected slash line of .610 xBA / 1.336 xSLG / .788 xwOBA.
Waldichuk doesn't stand much of a chance. He's a lefty who throws his four-seam fastball almost 70% of the time, and Trout is hitting .350 with a .286 ISO off southpaws this season and has already generated a +8 Run Value mark against four-seam fastballs.
It's worth diving deeper into Trout's four-seam numbers. On 175 four-seamers seen this year, Trout is 9-for-28 with four doubles, three home runs, a 98.9 mph avg. EV and a .719 xSLG.
Trout is hitting four-seam fastballs harder than he ever has.
This guy doesn't age.
Trout has cashed over 1.5 bases in 11 of his 20 games this year, including six of his past eight. During this eight-game stretch, Trout is 14-for-34 with eight extra-base hits, good for a .353 ISO and a 236 wRC+.
Look for Trout to hammer a Waldichuk fastball on Monday night, especially with how well No. 27 is seeing the ball. And if Trout can't hit the mark against Waldichuk, he'll have an opportunity against the absolute worst bullpen in MLB (6.99 ERA, 6.28 FIP, 6.34 xFIP).
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+100)
