PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
We’ve reached another Friday. That means the weekend is upon us, and we’re treated to a full-fledged MLB slate.
To celebrate, I have another two-leg MLB prop parlay, where I pair two of my favorite alternate lines from the board today.
MLB Prop Parlay
- Phillies 4+ Runs
- Jose Soriano 6+ Strikeouts
Parlay Odds: +161
The first-place Phillies return home after a trip to the West Coast for a weekend series against the surging Cardinals.
The Phillies have scored 5.6 runs per game this season at Citizens Bank Park – the highest mark of all teams at home – and they’ve plated at least four runs in 23 of their 30 home contests.
The Cardinals will start Miles Mikolas; he’s pitched to a 5.64 ERA / 4.77 xERA so far this season. He pitches to contact, with a well below average strikeout rate (17.9%) and a hard-hit rate in the 21st percentile (43.5%, per Baseball Savant).
The Phillies have had their way with finesse pitchers, collectively hitting to a .275 average with a .773 OPS.
And while Mikolas did hold the Phillies to two runs in April, Philly notched a 36.4% hard-hit rate — Mikolas’ second highest allowed this season.
And the Cardinals' bullpen has been average at best this season, and of late (3.96 xFIP in March ranks 15th).
After an off-day and with them returning home, I like the Phillies to pounce on Mikolas today.
This leg is more cut and dry.
Since Jose Soriano has been fully stretched out as a starter, he’s six of nine to the over on this line. He’s been exceptional on the road, pitching to a 1.67 ERA.
He’ll face the Mariners, who own an MLB-high 28.6% strikeout rate against righties in March. In fact, 21 of the last 25 right-handed starters have cleared this line against them, including 11 of the last 11.
He’s proven he can pitch deep into games, and with the Angels coming off a series against the Yankees — where their bullpen was used for 11 innings across the three games — I don’t see a reason to have Soriano on a short leash.
