The Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels will meet at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California at 9:38 p.m. ET on Friday, July 17. Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in his top betting prediction for tonight's matchup.
Let's dive into the data-driven breakdown of his MLB prop bets and picks for Friday, July 17.
MLB Prop Bets, Expert Picks for Friday, July 17
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 9:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Tigers vs. Angels MLB Player Prop: Troy Melton Strikeouts
Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-111) / 7+ Strikeouts (+190) / 8+ Strikeouts (+390)
Troy Melton had just a 14.5% adjusted K rate over his first 4 starts this season, but that has jumped to 27% (!!) over his last 4.
His velocity is up, he tweaked his pitch mix in what I think is a more optimal direction, and the underlying metrics have exploded. His slider has been especially nasty with a mouth-watering 60% whiff rate over that stretch.
I want to buy in on Melton before the market fully catches up. Obviously the Angels are one of the better strikeout matchups in baseball, but the bigger edge here is the lineup construction.
Melton has shown a pretty extreme platoon split so far in his career with roughly an 8% higher K rate against right-handed hitters.
Teams have wisely stacked lefties against him, with 61% of the batters he’s faced batting left-handed, but the Angels could send as many as 7 righties to the plate tonight.
Trying to figure out exactly where to project Melton’s true talent K rate right now is the equivalent of trying to stay on a mechanical bull after a few beers.
I feel like I’m being pretty conservative using a 22.5% expected K rate, and even that gets me to around -160 for Over 5.5 strikeouts.
If this jump in velocity, pitch mix and underlying metrics proves to be real, I could easily see him settling in at a 24%+ strikeout rate going forward, which would make this line closer to -200.
I think it makes sense to ladder him up a few rungs as well.
Sean Koerner's MLB Player Prop Ladder for Friday
- Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-111)
- Troy Melton 7+ Strikeouts (+190)
- Troy Melton 8+ Strikeouts (+390)
