Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, July 2.
MLB Predictions Tuesday | 3 Expert Picks & Previews (July 2)
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 9.5 +100o / -122u | +108 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 9.5 +100o / -122u | -126 |
RHP Michael Mercado (PHI) vs. RHP Hayden Wesneski (CHC)
I'd be remiss if I didn't talk about Michael Mercado, a player I'm very excited to see make his first career start in the big leagues.
From what we've heard out of Philly, the 25-year-old has the potential to be a special pitcher. He flamed out in the Rays' system only to come to the Phillies and post a 1.71 ERA in 47 1/3 innings down in Triple-A this season, putting aside his eye-popping strikeout numbers to pitch better on contact.
Yes, walks have been an issue for Mercado in a vacuum, and while the Cubs have struggled to hit lately, they've still worn a double-digit walk rate over the past two weeks. I'd be quick to point out, however, that Mercado seemed to be close to rounding out his game just prior to his promotion to the bigs with just five free passes in 15 2/3 innings this month for Lehigh Valley to 16 punchouts.
I think Mercado, who's rolled up a ton more ground balls this year to create a wonderful marriage with his strikeout upside, should be fully capable of holding down a Cubs offense that has hit .228 over the past 14 days with a measly .140 Isolated Power and plenty of punchouts.
I'm not as confident in the team behind him, however. Philly may have capable replacements for Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber at the top of the lineup, but that's left the heart and bottom of the order in rough shape. It did break out for seven runs against lowly Roddery Munoz and a tired Marlins bullpen on Sunday, but prior to that, the Phillies scored just four runs in the two games they played without two of their top hitters.
I wouldn't call myself one of Hayden Wesneski's biggest fans, but he's a perfectly fine starting pitcher and should enjoy working against a slightly depleted Phillies lineup.
Bet: Under 9.5 (-120 | Play to Under 9 -110)
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| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7.5 +100o / -122u | -112 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 7.5 +100o / -122u | -104 |
RHP Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) vs. RHP George Kirby (SEA)
It's a pretty simple formula in Seattle: Pitch to fly balls and get rewarded. That's something that Grayson Rodriguez has done a lot of over the first year and a half of his big-league career, and while the strikeouts weren't coming in bunches early, on they're certainly trending in the right direction.
The right-hander has pitched slightly beneath his 3.89 xERA thanks to the Orioles' excellence defensively, and while they've taken a bit of a step back this month in that regard, the task at hand should be quite easy. The Mariners will lift the ball in the air and they will strike out — two things we have seen a lot against Rodriguez this season.
The question in this game is just how well the Orioles will hit in a large park against the indomitable George Kirby. The righty's soft spots have come in his habit of allowing barrels and well-struck fly balls, but at his home park, that's not too much of a concern.
He owns a splendid 2.34 ERA in seven home starts compared to a 4.11 ERA on the road — and Baltimore did struggle the last time it stepped into a truly awful park for home runs when it scored just eight runs in three games at Busch Stadium in late May.
This is a multidimensional offense, sure, but its biggest strength is inarguably a league-leading home run-to-fly ball ratio which is up over 15%. T-Mobile Park isn't too welcoming to teams that like to hit the long ball, as we know, and Kirby sure as hell knows how to pitch to its tendencies.
It may not be the boldest take, but I once again like a Mariners home game to go under the total.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-115 | Play to Under 7 -110)
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7.5 -120o / -122u | -108 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 7.5 -120o / -122u | -108 |
RHP Jose Soriano (LAA) vs. RHP Mitch Spence (OAK)
Is Jose Soriano actually good? This is a story I've been following in the newspapers on a daily basis.
The righty owns one of the highest ground-ball rates in baseball at 60.8%, keeping his Expected Batting Average down to .233 and allowing a reasonably low number of barrels and expected extra-base hits. His Achilles' heel has been the walk, and an Angels defense that ranked dead last in Outs Above Average thanks to a revolving door of infielders through the first few months of the season.
Well, the Angels have made some marginal improvements there as they're no longer last — at least in the month of June, and the return of Miguel Sano (yes, you read that right) should actually help shore things up further after the great work he did at third base prior to his injury.
On Tuesday, Soriano faces an A's team that walks around the league average and ranks 22nd in batting average against ground-ball pitchers. The Angels, meanwhile, rank 10th against those types and have slashed .253/.322/.445 in that split as compared to .225/.294/.356 against fly-ball arms.
That should put Mitch Spence in a prickly spot given his ground-balling ways, and his limited strikeout ability should help out an Angels team punching out in nearly 26% of plate appearances over the last 14 days.
I believe in Soriano, and I believe in a suddenly competent Angels team that has won six of seven entering Tuesday.
Bet: Angels ML (-108 | Play to -125)
